Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. just announced that they ended the year with a total of 8,321,785 subscribers - that's up from 6,024,555 subscribes in the end of 2006.
During 2007, Sirius added approximately 2.3 million net subscriber additions.
"Sirius' subscriber base increased 38% in 2007, and our gross subscriber additions in 2007 were the highest in the history of satellite radio," said Mel Karmazin, CEO for Sirius. "Our full year monthly subscriber self-pay churn rate was 1.6% and all-in churn was 2.2%, consistent with the low end of our guidance. Based upon preliminary financial data, we expect to report significantly greater positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2007 than the company reported in the fourth quarter of 2006."
It's interesting that Sirius decided to announce this today, while the full year 2007 financial results and 2008 guidance will be released in February.
Yipee!
Reporting early...Hummmmmmmm..hope that does not point towards negative merger news being released soon...
Very interesting Ryan that they announced as the perception is that they both need to merge to survive--These are repectable numbers but lets see the retail breakdown and also the cost of acquiring subs(lots lots free receivers given out)
Jan should have a spillover effect with more subs coming aboard
i agree n2deep---thinking that
I wonder if XM ended above 9 million or not? I know they say they no longer will announce these things prior to CC, but sometimes when Sirius announces, XM can't help themselves, right?
Ryan , please give us some insight to this early release...whatcha thinkin'?
They did the same thing last year--they announced subs and positive free cash flow on I think the same date. In fact they had done almost regularly until they got burned at the end of the 2q or 2q last year when they missed target.
They did the same thing last year--they announced subs and positive free cash flow on I think the same date. In fact they had done almost regularly until they got burned at the end of the 2q or 2q last year when they missed target.
They announced same thing last year on I think the same date, i.e., subs and free positive cash flow. They STOPPED announcing sub ads at the close of each quarter for a while after they got burned either 2q or 3q last year, i.e., missed their estimate by about 100k
348,395
364,674
431,650
462,749
500,000?
lat number is an estimate, the rest are OEM NET for sirius. This puts Sirius ,the"KING of Retail" under 200,000 net retail subs for Q4... and thats pathetic
As for the timing... Agreed, nothing new, same time as last year and XM will wait till their presentation at the CES. Status Quo
348,395
364,674
431,650
462,749
500,000?
last number is an estimate, the rest are OEM NET for sirius. This puts Sirius ,the"KING of Retail" under 200,000 net retail subs for Q4... and thats pathetic
As for the timing... Agreed, nothing new, same time as last year and XM will wait till their presentation at the CES. Status Quo
348,395
364,674
431,650
462,749
500,000?
last number is an estimate, the rest are OEM NET for sirius. This puts Sirius ,the"KING of Retail" under 200,000 net retail subs for Q4... and thats pathetic
As for the timing... Agreed, nothing new, same time as last year and XM will wait till their presentation at the CES. Status Quo
348,395
364,674
431,650
462,749
500,000?
last number is an estimate, the rest are OEM NET for sirius. This puts Sirius ,the"KING of Retail" under 200,000 net retail subs for Q4... and thats pathetic
As for the timing... Agreed, nothing new, same time as last year and XM will wait till their presentation at the CES. Status Quo
don't ya hate it when the computer locks up and ya click a few more times to see what happens....... sorry
They may have more of their product out there. I went into the local Navy Exchange the other day and there were about three full shelves of Sirius radios. I only saw two XM radios. Not much of a choice.
How many "subscribers" have drivers behind the wheel.
650K net adds in Q4?
Am I the only one that finds 650K net adds in Q4 unimpressive?
Consider --
- Howard Stern costs, on average, about $35 Million/quarter -- most of which is more about attracting subscribers than it is about content.
- Untold thousands of these are a result of Q4 rollouts of new vehicles with deeper penetration and are undoubtedly sitting on dealer lots.
These guys are supposed to be KILLING at retail, and Q4 is the life blood of retail.
As to cash flow, it is important to remember that negative cash flow is a direct result of ramping subscriber growth. When subscriber growth is weak, positive cash flow is attainable, because you are not spending the big dollars to add subscribers. This has been a fact throughout the history of SDARS -- the more subs you add, the bigger the cash burn for a quarter. (Consider the massive losses in the quarters where Stern was adding subs.)
It is also important to remember that when Mel starts talking about "cash flow" you had better be on the lookout for a horrible, horrible earnings number.
XM most likely missed their 9 million goal and will wait until they hit 9mm to announce they finally hit it. This will be in February when they announce their q4 results.
This is what they did last year when they missed the 8mm mark.
Sirius is catching up fast. If they continue this pace they will surpass XM subs later this year.
-pfreak
msandmann, what are you talking about?
"They STOPPED announcing sub ads at the close of each quarter for a while after they got burned either 2q or 3q last year, i.e., missed their estimate by about 100k."
Please provied a link backing up your statement. It is completely false!
StackPointer to the rescue once again! I'm surprised it took you this long.
"As to cash flow, it is important to remember that negative cash flow is a direct result of ramping subscriber growth"
Let's see here - Sirius's best 3 quarters for cash flow (Q4 2005,6,7) happen to coincide with the 3 biggest quarters for gross subscriber additions. Interesting. You might need to fire your research department.
Want you really meant is that XM ramping up OEM installs means negative cash flow, because GM got the better end of their deal.
Way to step up in the clutch, Stack. Keep entertaining us.
UP 38% I think this company would be better off not merging and letting XM fall through the bottom.
ALL YOU HATERS AIN'T BRINGING THIS DOWN!!!
UP 38% Nothing else matters.
Hoo Hoo, Robin. Call David Letterman.
I gotta get back on his show to tell everyone that I single-handedly brought-in all of these subscriptions, even the thousands and thousands of subscriptions that the auto manufacturers bought for way less than the standard subscription rate. They bought all of those discounted OEM subscriptions to listen to me.
Hoo Hoo.
>> UP 38% Nothing else matters.
Don't let it go to your head. Remember, 11% of SIRI's subscribers, aren't (probably more than that, now).
>>> Let's see here - Sirius's best 3 quarters for cash flow (Q4 2005,6,7) happen to coincide with the 3 biggest quarters for gross subscriber additions. Interesting. You might need to fire your research department.
You have to adjust for the holding of accounts payable they have done for the last couple of years at the end of December (so they could claim great cash flow in Q4). Then, in Q1, all those payable have to be paid. The reality is that SIRI has a history of manipulating these data since Mel has been there.
How do you increase Q4 cash flow? Simple. Just don't pay your bills until Q1. Better yet -- pay them with stock. Note the marked increase in A/P during these quarters.
Don't let it go to your head. Remember, 11% of SIRI's subscribers, aren't (probably more than that, now).
Why does that mean anything. Its all about market penitration. With all new cars having sat rad standard they have already done the hard part of getting it to the consumer. It really doesnt matter at this point of whether they use the service. Sat rad is preping for something far bigger then millions.
>>> Let's see here - Sirius's best 3 quarters for cash flow (Q4 2005,6,7) happen to coincide with the 3 biggest quarters for gross subscriber additions. Interesting. You might need to fire your research department.
You have to adjust for the holding of accounts payable they have done for the last couple of years at the end of December (so they could claim great cash flow in Q4). Then, in Q1, all those payable have to be paid. The reality is that SIRI has a history of manipulating these data since Mel has been there.
How do you increase Q4 cash flow? Simple. Just don't pay your bills until Q1. Better yet -- pay them with stock. Note the marked increase in A/P during these quarters.
Q: How do you increase Q4 cash flow?
A: Gift cards.
They're carried on the balance sheet under accounts payable, in case you were to ignorant to look it up. And what is the average gift card value? ~$50. Funny - that covers about 4 months of service, doesn't it? Must be a coincidence that A/P is back down to normal after the first quarter for both Sirius *AND* XM.
And you did notice the similar jump in A/P for XM, right, or are you just conveniently ignorant once again?
*** Kisses ***
- JB
Without addressing your other mistakes, let me get this straight: You are actually suggesting that SIRI's runup in A/P in Q4'06 was attributable to GIFT CARDS?
LOL.
Those who are excited about SIRI's #s ought to pause and look at the following yahoo post. It pretty much tells the story.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_X/threadview?m=tm&bn=20286&tid=1032713&mid=1032713&tof=2&frt=1
SIRI's growth is doing exactly what XM's did -- dropping precipitously quarter by quarter.
This is something that no merger is going to cure.
It pretty much tells the story.
Thanks Stack, I would have never believed you without the proof of a Yahoo message board post. Your credibility has hit an all time new high!!
>> Thanks Stack, I would have never believed you without the proof of a Yahoo message board post. Your credibility has hit an all time new high!!
Credibility isn't an issue; the numbers are what they are.
I was just pointing out that the Yahoo poster made a very good point about SIRI's growth -- it is dropping sharply, quarter-by-quarter.
Stack you are too negative. BTW who cares if subs are on car lots if they are getting paid for them, and let's not act like those vehicles will never be sold. Let it go for goodness sake. Bunch of one trick ponies, find some other reason to claim Sirius sucks, please. Satellite radio probably has just reached all its going to. If they merge, with a combined 20m subs or so, they will just have to trim the fat and find a way to be profitable with that. Otherwise Stack will get his wish and they might cease to exist. Eventually everything will. So enjoy it while it lasts. That's all.
"Satellite radio probably has just reached all its going to. If they merge, with a combined 20m subs or so"
Ha!
There are 16 million new cars sold in this country EVERY YEAR! The game has simply just begun.
Philmore--I misspoke--they did not miss their estimate--they reduced their guidance by like 300k because they were going to miss their original target estimate--which they did--go back a couple of quarters. After that they stopped announcing sub ads right at end of quarter. Anybody else remember this??
Let's hope so. They should focus on OEM and including a subscription with the price of the car when you finance. That might help. I'm sure that's been mentioned before but I just came up with it myself.
Gift cards are a major part of it. The other part is probably that (if they're anything like most companies) both Sirius and XM have a 30-90 day net on their purchases, and there's the obvious increase in retail radio production in Q4.
Keep on entertaining us, buddy.
"Philmore--I misspoke--they did not miss their estimate--they reduced their guidance by like 300k because they were going to miss their original target estimate--which they did--go back a couple of quarters. After that they stopped announcing sub ads right at end of quarter. Anybody else remember this??"
You are referring to 2006. Sirius started the year out by saying they would have 6mm by year end, then increased it to 6.3, then reduced it in late q4 to 6mm; their original estimate.
>>>>>>>> BTW who cares if subs are on car lots if they are getting paid for them, and let's not act like those vehicles will never be sold.
There is a huge difference between a subscriber who is paying for the service every month and one who is receiving the service free (i.e., that the OEM paid for): Fully half of those who are not paying for the service will be gone when it is time to pony up.
This is why SIRI's (so-called) "all-in churn" looks so great -- OEM subscribers cannot churn even if they want to. In a period during which the number of OEM promo subs is climbing, it looks great -- but when the OEM subs level off, churn will climb through the roof. It is a bullshit tactic.
It is also important because for one year in revenue it puts the subscriber on the books for 16-17 months, without the subscriber ever paying one nickel for the product, putting vast numbers of "subs" in the category described above.
If you cannot see the difference between these two categories of "subscribers", perhaps you ought to be more interested in the lettuce business where you use it lose it quickly.
Ryan, please do something about this shitdick posting under my name.