Oh my god. I must be an unfunny comic with midget fingers, because I'm rich.

I anticipated this move and shorted Sirius (via calls & puts) with damn near half my portfolio. I'm rich now. Holy shit.

To Ryan & all you XMers/OA fans, have a merry Christmas; I love you guys.

To all you Siriot Stern Fans, I hope the pain you feel tomorrow as you see your life savings drained from your portfolios is only the begining of a long & miserable journey that will end with you using a shotgun & a toe trigger.

I mean this from the bottom of my heart when I say Fuck off and die you worthless sacks of pig fetuses.

Lord Westfall

p.s. If you see me on the street, NO, I don't have any spare change for you, I'm spending it all on my mansion.

Oh my god. I must be an unfunny comic with midget fingers, because I'm rich.

I anticipated this move and shorted Sirius (via calls & puts) with damn near half my portfolio. I'm rich now. Holy shit.

To Ryan & all you XMers/OA fans, have a merry Christmas; I love you guys.

To all you Siriot Stern Fans, I hope the pain you feel tomorrow as you see your life savings drained from your portfolios is only the begining of a long & miserable journey that will end with you using a shotgun & a toe trigger.

I mean this from the bottom of my heart when I say Fuck off and die you worthless sacks of pig fetuses.

Lord Westfall

p.s. If you see me on the street, NO, I don't have any spare change for you, I'm spending it all on my mansion.

Cheers, Mel.

its been obvious for the last 6 months that Sirius has been loosing the stern push. as Wrong as Bridgeratings have been they have not been tottaly wrong and showed the trend. Why in the world Sirius would have raised guidance in August is amazing to me. This is not the second time Sirius has lowered their guidance failing to meet their original guidance. Now if they get even the high end of this guidance, what did all the comercials and dicounts cost them in SAC? This will be an ugly end of 2006 for sirius and the beginning of an ugly 2007. Like XM, (IMO)it will take a year for them to turn it around.

"because I'm rich. I anticipated this move and shorted Sirius (via calls & puts)"

sure you did, based on inital fall today, SIRI has been lower before in Oct/Nov. so when did you actually do this so called move?

BTW most "fans" do not play the stock market...besides how many more millions do you need to make to get back that 60% fall on XM.

BOTH stocks SUCK...get over it

Did they really think they'd do better than last year's Q4 this whole time? Or is this Mel pulling the rug out from under investors with three weeks left in the quarter?

I understand that all companies game their expectations, but to restate your guidance NOW seems ridiculous. I'll bet they miss the new bar too, or barely clip the low end. That 6.1 figure is BS- only included because psychologically people want to see "6 million".

PNess wrote: "Blah blah blah"

I'm sorry, can someone translate? I don't speak poor.

Lord Westfall

Poor Westfall having a bad day?

Don't worry there is alot of public programs that can help you at your time of need.

Merry Christmas

Westfall... Isn't he the loser who couldn't get it up so his woman left him? I seem to recall that series of posts...

So Mel finally sucks it up and lowers guidance. Even he is not immune to the fact that BOTH companies have seen a significant drop in retail sales this year.

Why he ever reiterated the 6.3M is beyond me. Better to announce the lowering now than to take a significant stock hit for missing at the end of the year.

XM cut back forecast by over 1mm this year. Sirius just cut back 200k-400k.

sirius would have come very close to their goal if they didnt go 2 months with no products to sell on stores shelves. however xm product was well in stock through the whole fcc BS, so xm was going to miss their original goal of 9mm either way.

this is bad news for both stocks because it shows dsr growth is slowing down. sirius is still outselling xm so HA!

I can't believe anyone ever thought they'd top last December when Howard was at the peak of his marketing/hype. The stock closed at $4.17, Yahoo finance shows asking price at $3.88, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

Hey Westfall, you bet half your portfolio on a single hedge? Enjoy your money while you have it, you're clearly an idiot who will lose it soon enough.

AP story ... "Sirius said it expects to add between 2.6 million to 2.8 million new subscribers in 2006, to a total of between 5.9 million to 6.1 million by the end of 2006. Previously, the company expected to end the year with a higher total of 6.3 million subscribers."
----------------------------------

IMO ... Oprah (XM) and Stern (Sirius) have been useless as promoters of satellite radio
this quarter. Oprah never advertises the XM service on her show ...
and Stern preaches to Sirius listeners - big deal .... very disappointing ...

On the other hand ... isn't 3.3 million to 5.9 million
a 2006 growth rate of 78% ?

What's wrong with 78% ?

"sirius is still outselling xm so HA!"

I'm pretty sure XM has had more gross additions in almost every quarter, if not all. Sounds to me like XM is still 'outselling' Sirius.

Hey Lord Westfall you are a pathetic excuse for a human.We understand this is your only source of entertainment other then your mommy J##$%^# you off in the bathtub.

Sirius will win the WAR.

Now go home I am sure it's bath time for you...lmao

gross numbers are the only thing that counts? jesus whats wrong with you? haven't you heard the trouble sprint/nextel is having? they gained 233,000 customers and lost 188,000 last quarter. but at least they gained 233,000 right?

i can't believe they raised sub forecasts in august too. i just want these companies in the black. they still had a good year and thumped xm. unless you count gross subs like a total dumbass.

FaFaFluFly, do the math. Higher gross subs at the same churn rate. As sirius increases total subscribers, they will churn more. When two companies churn the same amount of subscribers, it is the gross additions that will ultimately determine net additions. So if both companies have the same churn rate (as XM and Sirius approximately do) and one company is adding more gross subscribers (as XM is) then I would say that Sirius is not outselling XM, contrary to what Philmore says.

Chipper, stop trying to use reason & logic on these assholes. First off, they're lack the intellectual capasity to understand the business model, and more importantly they're too arrogant--so even if they could be taught they wouldn't listen.

Lord Westfall

"capasity"

i gotz noz Capzsity cauz i diz knot gradate fom skool

Chipper, stop trying to use reason & logic on these assholes. First off, they're lack the intellectual capasity to understand the business model, and more importantly they're too arrogant--so even if they could be taught they wouldn't listen.

Lord Westfall

Lord Westfall you lack the ability to spell.See above (capasity).

It's capacity.....you bozo.

Everyone here needs to calm down. First off, remember that what happens to Sirius happens about a year later than XM. With a higher subscriber base comes higher deactivations. So while Sirius had a better year with net adds than XM (and everyone knows it is due mostly to Stern), they will have an equally troubling time next year keeping the net adds, just like XM is now. The Stern effect is pretty much over, so the playing field is level again. Also remember the real "enemy" here is other technologies, i.e. iPod/HDRadio/MP3 players etc. These are basically causing the retail slowdown of both companies. I am more than willing to bet this is why XM and now Sirius have lowered guidance.

Ryan, how come we can no longer post in paragraphs? Everthing is lumped together now. Can that be fixed? Thanks

Ryan has changed Orbitcast so that only Millionaires can post in paragraphs.

Oh, looky there.

I suggest if you want to post in paragraphs too, you save your money and short Sirius

Lord Westfall

Hmmmm... paragraphs are disabled? I might have messed something up recently. Lemme take a look.

(pssst... Westfall is using HTML code)

I move to ban Lord Shortfall, a.k.a. Ramone. Sirius in the 3rd quarter gained 441k and net 359k (19% drop) xm added 868k and net 286k (68% drop). percentages don't lie. even if you double these numbers its still the same percentage of net on the quarter. since i'm no math professor, tell me my mistake. maybe i don't understand the churn formula(percentage of the whole, etc..)

OK, paragraphs are fixed now. I can't say the same about Westfalls social skills tho. :)

since i'm no math professor, tell me my mistake. maybe i don't understand the churn formula(percentage of the whole, etc..)

Umm... churn is the percentage of pre-existing subscribers that have canceled. It's not the net divided by gross. Your math is about as good as Mel's at counting subscribers.

Hey FaFaFluFly, this isn't SFN where you can ban all those who dissent. Get over yourself.

Chipper, Sirius has added more retail subs in the last 14 months. in retail consumers have a choice.

Where people have a choice, they are choosing Sirius. When they get XM for free in their vehicles, 54% are turning it off after the trial period.

therefore, you can come to the conclusion that XM really does suck!

so...HA!

While you're all debating who will win the satellite wars you're too busy and distracted to realize that neither will win without a merger.

Stand back, calm down, and look at two sucky business ventures that are just about out of gas. The investing world realizes this. You should also.

Westfall sucks my George Bush.

ryan banned ramone dip shit. your supposed to be a history guy. find yourself a sense of humor.

so chipper, if xm has 100 subs total and churn is 2%, then you minus 2 from your gross of subs for the quarter? i know i'm fuckin stupid but i need to get it right.

merger?
xm doesn't need a merger. between what they pick up this xmas and the OEM's they'll get in 2007 xm will be making money sometime in the new year!
sirius might be fucked.

BTW...

None of you actually believe Westfall's bullshit, do you?

I guarantee, the only money that dipshit's ever made was whatever mommy paid him to take out the garbage.

:)

Sirius will grow from 3.3 million subs in 2005
to 5.9 million subs in 2006.

Is that not a 78% growth rate in subs?

I would like my "bank account" to grow at 78%!
(I'd even let my bank compound it yearly if they want)

Keep it up Sirius !

Philmore,

It's misleading to use retail adds as a barometer of product quality. Most consumers are still only vaguely aware that there are two different companies in the first place, and far, far fewer could recite the pros and cons of each one. But someone with casual satrad interest (virtually everyone who buys one at this point) is more likely to have heard of Sirius because of their more aggressive advertising, so that's the box he picks up.

XM puts its money and energy into OEM deals. Sirius focuses on advertising its retail product. The different sales figures reflect different marketing strategies, not likely anything more.

Damn, I might as well go back to listening to regular radio if you XM and Sirius fanboys keep being idiots and fight.

please...these people do not represent anyone but themselves. Swallow the pride you all have for XM or Sirius and talk sense. When somone just says something ridiculs like the comment that started this...just ignore it cause it drives people away from this site