Sirius fourth quarter/full-year 2007 results - Orbitcast

Sirius fourth quarter/full-year 2007 results

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SIRI


Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) posted a narrower loss for the fourth quarter, driven by the highest annual gross subscriber growth is satellite radio history.

The company saw a 45% increase in revenue to $922.1 million, and ended 4Q07 with positive free cash flow. Sirius also ended 2H07 with positive free cash flow (which is great news).

Sirius ended the year with 8,321,785 subscribers, up 38% from 6,024,555 subscribers at the end of 2006. Retail subs increased 15% to 4,640,709; OEM subs increased 87% to 3,665,632.

4Q07 total revenue increased 29% to $249.8 million from fourth quarter 2006 revenue of $193.4 million.

ARPU was $10.46 in 2007 and $10.05 for the fourth quarter 2007. Average self-pay monthly churn was 1.6% in 2007, and all-in average monthly churn for 2007 was 2.2%. For the fourth quarter 2007 average self-pay monthly churn was 1.7% and all-in churn was 2.3%.

SAC per gross subscriber addition was $101 for 2007 improving 11% over 2006's SAC per gross subscriber addition of $114. SAC per gross add was $90.

Sirius reported a net loss of ($565.3) million, or ($0.39) per share, for 2007; for 4Q07 the net loss was ($166.2) million, or ($0.11) per share.

The adjusted loss from operations for 2007 improved to ($327.4) million, as compared to the adjusted loss from operations of ($513.1) million in 2006. For 4Q07, the adjusted loss from operations was ($107.2) million, an improvement of 36% as compared with the ($166.8) million adjusted loss from operations in the fourth quarter 2006.

Sirius reported a full-year 2007 free cash flow loss of ($218.6), a 56% improvement over the 2006 free cash flow loss of ($500.7) million. The company posted positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2007 of $75.9 million, up 150% from the $30.4 million in positive free cash flow reported in the fourth quarter of 2006.

For the first time in the company's history, Sirius also posted positive free cash flow of $8.1 million for the second half of the year.

See the full financials after the jump...

                 SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                           SUBSCRIBER DATA, METRICS
                    AND OTHER NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
               (Dollars in thousands, unless otherwise stated)
                                 (Unaudited)

    Subscribers Data:
                               For the Three Months       For the Years
                                Ended December 31,      Ended December 31,
                                2007        2006        2007          2006

    Beginning subscribers    7,667,476   5,119,308   6,024,555     3,316,560
    Net additions              654,309     905,247   2,297,230     2,707,995
      Ending subscribers     8,321,785   6,024,555   8,321,785     6,024,555

      Retail                 4,640,709   4,041,826   4,640,709     4,041,826
      OEM                    3,665,632   1,959,009   3,665,632     1,959,009
      Hertz                     15,444      23,720      15,444        23,720
    Ending subscribers       8,321,785   6,024,555   8,321,785     6,024,555

    Additions
      Retail                   211,962     559,312     598,883     1,576,463
      OEM                      444,244     348,935   1,706,623     1,135,316
      Hertz                     (1,897)     (3,000)     (8,276)       (3,784)
    Net additions              654,309     905,247   2,297,230     2,707,995


    Metrics:
                               For the Three Months        For the Years
                                Ended December 31,      Ended December 31,
                                2007        2006        2007          2006
    Gross subscriber
     additions               1,194,014   1,234,576   4,183,901     3,758,163
    Deactivated subscribers    539,705     329,329   1,886,671     1,050,168
    Average monthly churn
     (1)(6)                        2.3%        2.0%        2.2%          1.9%
    SAC per gross subscriber
     addition (3)(6)               $90        $103        $101          $114
    Customer service and
     billing expenses per
     average subscriber
     (3)(6)                      $1.23       $1.60       $1.10         $1.37
    Total revenue             $249,816    $193,380    $922,066      $637,235
    Free cash flow (4)(6)      $75,921     $30,409   $(218,624)    $(500,715)

    Monthly ARPU:
      Average monthly
       subscriber revenue per
       subscriber before
       the effects of Hertz
       subscribers and
       rebates                  $10.19      $10.48      $10.24        $10.63
      Effects of Hertz
       subscribers                0.04        0.05        0.05          0.05
      Effects of rebates         (0.59)      (0.14)      (0.23)        (0.23)
      Average monthly
       subscriber revenue per
       subscriber                 9.64       10.39       10.06         10.45
      Average monthly net
       advertising revenue
       per subscriber             0.41        0.53        0.40          0.56
      ARPU                      $10.05      $10.92      $10.46        $11.01



                 SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                           SUBSCRIBER DATA, METRICS
              AND OTHER NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES - CONTINUED
               (Dollars in thousands, unless otherwise stated)
                                 (Unaudited)

    Adjusted Loss from Operations:

                               For the Three Months       For the Years
                                Ended December 31,      Ended December 31,
                                 2007       2006         2007        2006

    Net loss                 $(166,223)  $(245,597)  $(565,252)  $(1,104,867)
      Impairment loss                -           -           -        10,917
      Depreciation              27,638      27,495     106,780       105,749
      Stock-based
       compensation             14,896      42,625      78,900       437,918
      Other income and
       expense                  15,699       8,512      49,727        35,078
      Income tax expense           770         156       2,435         2,065
      Adjusted loss from
       operations (7)        $(107,220)  $(166,809)  $(327,410)    $(513,140)


    Adjusted Net Loss and
     Adjusted Net Loss per Share:

                               For the Three Months       For the Years
                                Ended December 31,      Ended December 31,
                                 2007        2006       2007          2006

    Net loss                 $(166,223)  $(245,597)  $(565,252)  $(1,104,867)
      Impairment loss                -           -           -        10,917
      Stock-based
       compensation             14,896      42,625      78,900       437,918
    Adjusted net loss        $(151,327)  $(202,972)  $(486,352)    $(656,032)
    Net loss per share
     (basic and diluted)        $(0.11)     $(0.17)     $(0.39)       $(0.79)
      Impairment loss                -           -           -          0.01
      Stock-based
       compensation               0.01        0.03        0.05          0.31
    Adjusted net loss per
     share (basic and
     diluted) (8)               $(0.10)     $(0.14)     $(0.34)       $(0.47)
    Weighted average common
     shares outstanding
     (basic and diluted)     1,468,210   1,413,866   1,462,967     1,402,619



                 SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                           SUBSCRIBER DATA, METRICS
              AND OTHER NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES - CONTINUED
               (Dollars in thousands, unless otherwise stated)

    Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations:
                               For the Three Months       For the Years
                                Ended December 31,      Ended December 31,
                                 2007        2006       2007          2006

    Total revenue             $249,816    $193,380    $922,066      $637,235
    Operating expenses
     (excludes depreciation
     and stock-based
     compensation shown
     separately below):
       Satellite and
        transmission             4,811       7,152      25,709        39,229
       Programming and
        content                 59,949      55,779     226,416       198,650
       Revenue share and
        royalties               56,762      21,062     146,715        69,918
       Customer service and
        billing                 29,123      25,745      93,109        75,650
       Cost of equipment        19,070      22,105      45,458        35,233
       Sales and marketing      53,143      73,115     157,965       184,139
       Subscriber
        acquisition costs       99,906     121,046     404,799       419,716
       General and
        administrative          26,951      21,398     111,546        80,025
       Engineering, design
        and development          7,321      12,787      37,759        58,732
       Depreciation             27,638      27,495     106,780       105,749
       Stock-based
        compensation            14,896      42,625      78,900       437,918
    Total operating
     expenses                  399,570     430,309   1,435,156     1,704,959
    Loss from operations      (149,754)   (236,929)   (513,090)   (1,067,724)
       Other expense           (15,699)     (8,512)    (49,727)      (35,078)
    Loss before income taxes  (165,453)   (245,441)   (562,817)   (1,102,802)
       Income tax expense         (770)       (156)     (2,435)       (2,065)
    Net loss                 $(166,223)  $(245,597)  $(565,252)  $(1,104,867)



                 SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                    CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
               (Dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
                                 (Unaudited)

                               For the Three Months       For the Years
                                Ended December 31,      Ended December 31,
                                2007        2006        2007          2006
    Revenue:
      Subscriber revenue,
       including effects of
       rebates                $227,658    $167,210    $854,933      $575,404
      Advertising revenue,
       net of agency fees        9,770       8,451      34,192        31,044
      Equipment revenue, net
       of discounts and
       rebates                  12,065      16,431      29,281        26,798
      Other revenue                323       1,288       3,660         3,989
    Total revenue              249,816     193,380     922,066       637,235
    Operating expenses
     (excludes depreciation
     shown separately
     below) (1):
      Cost of services:
        Satellite and
         transmission            5,175       7,518      27,907        41,797
        Programming and
         content                62,735      80,414     236,059       520,424
        Revenue share and
         royalties              56,762      21,062     146,715        69,918
        Customer service and
         billing                29,288      25,912      93,817        76,462
        Cost of equipment       19,070      22,105      45,458        35,233
      Sales and marketing       53,682      77,780     173,572       203,682
      Subscriber acquisition
       costs                   100,062    122,196      407,642       451,614
      General and
       administrative           37,212      32,379     155,863       129,953
      Engineering, design and
       development               7,946      13,448      41,343        70,127
      Depreciation              27,638      27,495     106,780       105,749
    Total operating expenses   399,570     430,309   1,435,156     1,704,959
      Loss from operations    (149,754)   (236,929)   (513,090)   (1,067,724)
    Other income (expense):
      Interest and investment
       income                    4,171       6,760      20,570        33,320
      Interest expense, net of
       amounts capitalized     (19,887)    (15,327)    (70,328)      (64,032)
      Loss from redemption of
       debt                          -           -           -             -
      Equity in net loss of
       affiliate                     -           -           -        (4,445)
      Other income                  17          55          31            79
    Total other income
     (expense)                 (15,699)     (8,512)    (49,727)      (35,078)
      Loss before income
       taxes                   (165,453)  (245,441)   (562,817)   (1,102,802)
      Income tax expense          (770)       (156)     (2,435)       (2,065)
        Net loss             $(166,223)  $(245,597)  $(565,252)  $(1,104,867)
    Net loss per share (basic
     and diluted)               $(0.11)     $(0.17)     $(0.39)       $(0.79)
    Weighted average common
     shares outstanding
     (basic and diluted)     1,468,210   1,413,866   1,462,967     1,402,619

    (1) Amounts related to
     stock-based compensation
     included in other
     operating expenses were as
     follows:
    Satellite and transmission    $364        $366      $2,198        $2,568
    Programming and content      2,786      24,635       9,643       321,774
    Customer service and
     billing                       165         167         708           812
    Sales and marketing            539       4,665      15,607        19,543
    Subscriber acquisition costs   156       1,150       2,843        31,898
    General and administrative  10,261      10,981      44,317        49,928
    Engineering, design and
     development                   625         661       3,584        11,395
    Total equity granted to
     third parties and
     employees                 $14,896     $42,625     $78,900      $437,918



                 SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                              BALANCE SHEET DATA
                            (Dollars in thousands)

                                                            As of
                                                December 31,     December 31,
                                                    2007              2006

    Cash, cash equivalents and
     marketable securities                        $439,289          $408,921
    Restricted investments                          53,000            77,850
    Working capital                               (394,989)         (257,799)
    Total assets                                 1,694,149         1,658,528
    Long-term debt                               1,278,617         1,068,249
    Total liabilities                            2,486,886         2,047,599
    Accumulated deficit                         (4,398,972)       (3,833,720)
    Stockholders' deficit                         (792,737)         (389,071)



                   SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
                      CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
                              (Dollars in thousands)
                                   (Unaudited)

                                   For the Three Months    For the Years
                                    Ended December 31,   Ended December 31,
                                     2007       2006      2007        2006
    Cash flows from operating
     activities:
       Net loss                   $(166,223) (245,597) $(565,252) $(1,104,867)
       Adjustments to reconcile
        net loss to net cash used
        in operating activities:
         Depreciation                27,638    27,495    106,780      105,749
         Non-cash interest
          expense                     1,817       775      4,269        3,107
         Provision for doubtful
          accounts                    2,339     1,826      9,002        9,370
         Non-cash equity in net
          loss of affiliate               -         -          -        4,445
         Gain/(Loss) on disposal
          of assets                    (520)      772       (428)       1,661
         Impairment loss                  -         -          -       10,917
         Stock-based compensation    14,896    42,625     78,900      437,918
         Deferred income taxes          770       156      2,435        2,065
       Changes in operating
        assets and liabilities:
         Accounts receivable        (22,254)   (8,724)   (28,881)      (1,871)
         Inventory                    7,498    10,477      4,965      (20,246)
         Receivables from
          distributors               (4,147)  (28,146)   (13,179)     (20,312)
         Prepaid expenses and
          other current assets       (3,112)       31     11,459      (42,367)
         Other long-term assets        (205)    2,343     12,109      (19,331)
         Accounts payable and
          accrued expenses          129,257   102,299     66,169       26,366
         Accrued interest             7,820    11,699     (8,920)       1,239
         Deferred revenue            93,102   105,334    169,905      181,003
         Other long-term
          liabilities                 1,142    11,503      1,901        3,452
           Net cash (used in)
            provided by operating
            activities               89,818    34,868   (148,766)    (421,702)
     Cash flows from investing
      activities:
       Additions to property and
        equipment                    (7,377)   (5,459)   (65,264)     (92,674)
       Sales of property and
        equipment                       525         4        641          127
       Merger related costs          (6,680)        -    (29,444)           -
       Purchases of restricted
        and other investments             -         -       (310)     (12,339)
       Release of restricted
        investments                     160     1,000     25,160       26,000
       Purchases of available-
        for-sale securities               -    (5,000)         -     (123,500)
       Sales of available-for-
        sale securities               4,189    28,375     15,031      229,715
           Net cash (used in)
            provided by investing
            activities               (9,183)   18,920    (54,186)      27,329
     Cash flows from financing
      activities:
       Long term borrowings, net
        of related costs               (320)        -    244,879            -
       Repayment of long term
        borrowings                     (625)        -       (625)           -
       Proceeds from exercise of
        stock options                 1,420    21,757      4,097       25,787
           Net cash provided by
            financing activities        475    21,757    248,351       25,787
     Net increase (decrease) in
      cash and cash equivalents      81,110    75,545     45,399     (368,586)
     Cash and cash equivalents at
      the beginning of period       357,710   317,876    393,421      762,007
     Cash and cash equivalents at
      the end of period            $438,820  $393,421   $438,820     $393,421



    FOOTNOTES TO PRESS RELEASE AND TABLES FOR NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
    This press release, including the selected financial information above,
includes the following non-GAAP financial measures: average monthly churn;
SAC per gross subscriber addition; customer service and billing expenses
per average subscriber; free cash flow; average monthly revenue per
subscriber, or ARPU; adjusted loss from operations; adjusted net loss; and
adjusted net loss per share. The definitions and usefulness of such
non-GAAP financial measures are as follows (dollars in thousands, unless
otherwise stated):



    (1) SIRIUS defines average monthly churn as the number of deactivated
        subscribers divided by average quarterly subscribers.

    (2) SIRIUS defines SAC per gross subscriber addition as subscriber
        acquisition costs, excluding stock-based compensation, and margins
        from the direct sale of SIRIUS radios and accessories divided by the
        number of gross subscriber additions for the period. SAC per gross
        subscriber addition is calculated as follows:



                                   For the Three Months     For the Years
                                    Ended December 31,    Ended December 31,
                                     2007       2006       2007       2006

    Subscriber acquisition costs   $100,062   $122,196   $407,642   $451,614
    Less:  stock-based
     compensation                      (156)    (1,150)    (2,843)   (31,898)
    Add:  margin from direct
     sales of SIRIUS radios and
     accessories                      7,005      5,674     16,177      8,435
    SAC                            $106,911   $126,720   $420,976   $428,151
    Gross subscriber
     additions                    1,194,014  1,234,576  4,183,901  3,758,163
    SAC per gross subscriber
     addition                           $90       $103       $101       $114



    (3) SIRIUS defines customer service and billing expenses per average
        subscriber as total customer service and billing expenses, excluding
        stock-based compensation, divided by the daily weighted average number
        of subscribers for the period. Customer service and billing expenses
        per average subscriber is calculated as follows:



                                   For the Three Months      For the Years
                                    Ended December 31,     Ended December 31,
                                     2007       2006        2007       2006

    Customer service and
     billing expenses               $29,288    $25,912    $93,817    $76,462
    Less:  stock-based
     compensation                      (165)      (167)      (708)      (812)
    Customer service and
     billing expenses,
     as adjusted                    $29,123    $25,745    $93,109    $75,650
    Daily weighted average
     number of subscribers        7,878,574  5,361,322  7,082,927  4,591,693
    Customer service and
     billing expenses,
     as adjusted, per
     average subscriber               $1.23      $1.60      $1.10      $1.37



    (4) SIRIUS defines free cash flow as cash flow from operating activities,
        capital expenditures, merger related costs and restricted and other
        investment activity. Free cash flow is calculated as follows:



                                    For the Three Months   For the Years
                                      Ended December 31,  Ended December 31,
                                        2007     2006      2007       2006
    Net cash used in operating
     activities                      $89,818   $34,868  $(148,766) $(421,702)
    Additions to property and
     equipment                        (7,377)   (5,459)   (65,264)   (92,674)
    Merger related costs              (6,680)        -    (29,444)         -
    Restricted and other
     investment activity                 160     1,000     24,850     13,661
    Free cash flow                   $75,921   $30,409  $(218,624) $(500,715)



    (5) SIRIUS defines ARPU as the total earned subscriber revenue and net
        advertising revenue divided by the daily weighted average number of
        subscribers for the period. ARPU is calculated as follows:



                                   For the Three Months     For the Years
                                    Ended December 31,    Ended December 31,
                                     2007       2006       2007       2006

    Subscriber revenue              $227,658  $167,210   $854,933   $575,404
    Net advertising revenue            9,770     8,451     34,192     31,044
    Total subscriber and net
     advertising revenue            $237,428  $175,661   $889,125   $606,448
    Daily weighted average
     number of subscribers         7,878,574 5,361,322  7,082,927  4,591,693
    ARPU                              $10.05    $10.92     $10.46     $11.01



    (6) SIRIUS believes average monthly churn; SAC per gross subscriber
        addition; customer service and billing expenses per average
        subscriber; free cash flow; and ARPU provide meaningful information
        regarding operating performance and liquidity and are used for
        internal management purposes; when publicly providing the business
        outlook; as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons; and to
        compare the company's performance to that of its competitors. SIRIUS
        also believes that investors use current and projected metrics to
        monitor performance of the business and make investment decisions.

        SIRIUS believes the exclusion of stock-based compensation expense in
        the calculations of SAC per gross subscriber addition and customer
        service and billing expenses per average subscriber is useful given
        the significant variation in expense that can result from changes in
        the fair market value of SIRIUS common stock, the effect of which is
        unrelated to the operational conditions that give rise to variations
        in the components of subscriber acquisition costs and customer service
        and billing expenses. Specifically, the exclusion of stock-based
        compensation expense in the calculation of SAC per gross subscriber
        addition is critical in being able to understand the economic impact
        of the direct costs incurred to acquire a subscriber and the effect
        over time as economies of scale are reached.

        These non-GAAP financial measures are used in addition to and in
        conjunction with results presented in accordance with GAAP. These non-
        GAAP financial measures may be susceptible to varying calculations;
        may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other
        companies; and should not be considered in isolation for, or superior
        to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP.

    (7) SIRIUS refers to net loss before taxes; other income (expense) -
        including interest and investment income, interest expense, equity in
        net loss of affiliate; depreciation; impairment charges; and stock-
        based compensation expense as adjusted loss from operations. Adjusted
        loss from operations is not a measure of financial performance under
        GAAP. The company believes adjusted loss from operations is a useful
        measure of its operating performance. The company uses adjusted loss
        from operations for budgetary and planning purposes; to assess the
        relative profitability and on-going performance of consolidated
        operations; to compare performance from period to period; and to
        compare performance to that of its competitors. The company also
        believes adjusted loss from operations is useful to investors to
        compare operating performance to the performance of other
        communications, entertainment and media companies. The company
        believes that investors use current and projected adjusted loss from
        operations to estimate the current or prospective enterprise value and
        make investment decisions.

        Because the company funds and builds-out its satellite radio system
        through the periodic raising and expenditure of large amounts of
        capital, results of operations reflect significant charges for
        interest and depreciation expense. The company believes adjusted loss
        from operations provides useful information about the operating
        performance of the business apart from the costs associated with the
        capital structure and physical plant. The exclusion of interest
        expense and depreciation is useful given fluctuations in interest
        rates and significant variation in depreciation expense that can
        result from the amount and timing of capital expenditures and
        potential variations in estimated useful lives, all of which can vary
        widely across different industries or among companies within the same
        industry. The company believes the exclusion of taxes is appropriate
        for comparability purposes as the tax positions of companies can vary
        because of their differing abilities to take advantage of tax benefits
        and because of the tax policies of the various jurisdictions in which
        they operate. The company also believes the exclusion of stock-based
        compensation expense is useful given the significant variation in
        expense that can result from changes in the fair market value of the
        company's common stock. Finally, the company believes that the
        exclusion of equity in net loss of affiliate (SIRIUS Canada, Inc.) is
        useful to assess the performance of its core consolidated operations
        in the continental United States. To compensate for the exclusion of
        taxes, other income (expense), depreciation, impairment charges and
        stock-based compensation expense, the company separately measures and
        budgets for these items.

        There are material limitations associated with the use of adjusted
        loss from operations in evaluating the company compared with net loss,
        which reflects overall financial performance, including the effects of
        taxes, other income (expense), depreciation, impairment charges and
        stock-based compensation expense. The company uses adjusted loss from
        operations to supplement GAAP results to provide a more complete
        understanding of the factors and trends affecting the business than
        GAAP results alone. Investors that wish to compare and evaluate the
        operating results after giving effect for these costs, should refer to
        net loss as disclosed in the unaudited consolidated statements of
        operations. Since adjusted loss from operations is a non-GAAP
        financial measure, the calculation of adjusted loss from operations
        may be susceptible to varying calculations; may not be comparable to
        other similarly titled measures of other companies; and should not be
        considered in isolation, as a substitute for, or superior to measures
        of financial performance in accordance with GAAP.

    (8) SIRIUS refers to adjusted net loss and adjusted net loss per share as
        net loss per share excluding impairment charges and stock-based
        compensation expense. Adjusted net loss and adjusted net loss per
        share are not measures of financial performance under GAAP. The
        company believes adjusted net loss and adjusted net loss per share are
        useful to investors to compare its operating performance to the
        performance of other communications, entertainment and media
        companies. The company believes the exclusion of impairment charges is
        appropriate for comparability purposes as the existence, amount and
        timing of impairment charges can vary from period to period and can
        vary widely across different industries or among companies within the
        same industry. The company also believes the exclusion of stock-based
        compensation expense is useful given the significant variation in
        expense that can result from changes in the fair market value of the
        company's common stock.

        There are material limitations associated with the use of adjusted net
        loss and adjusted net loss per share in evaluating the company
        compared with net loss and net loss per share, which reflects overall
        financial performance, including the effects of impairment charges and
        stock-based compensation expense. The company uses adjusted net loss
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7 Comments

Now where are the XM fanbois talking shit about Sirius and its financial position. Look who hit positive cash flow this quarter and grew another 2+ million subs this year.

Self-paying churn rate (from CC): 1.6%
Retail avg. sub level (weighting beginning number at double ending number): 4,499k
Retail deactivations: c. 216k
Retail net adds: c. 212k
Retail gross adds: 428k

Overall gross adds: 1,194k
OEM/Non-retail gross adds: 766k

Total deactivations: 540k
OEM/Non-retail deactivations: 324k (though Hertz subs contribute an insignificant number)

Beginning parking-lot subs: 843k
OEM gross adds: 766k
OEM units available for sale: 1,609k
less Ending parking-lot subs: 915k
XM-definition OEM gross adds: 694k

XM-definition gross adds: 1,122k

these numbers are complete bullshit. a churn rate of 2.3% means that over 27% of the total sub base turns over each year. This isn't good.

Save this post. sirius and xm will both file a bkcy petition and reorganize under new ownership.

My controversial carrying cost (though it's arguably more valid than the pre-SAC net that both companies talk about (and interestingly enough, I don't recall either discussing that metric until I posted the original analysis... Hi Joe & David...), as this leaves churn-replacement expense in) analysis:

Total carrying cost (basically operating expenses less SAC*net adds) was $341 million, an increase from $293 million in the previous quarter and from $337 million in the year-ago quarter. The daily-weighted subscriber average comes in at about 7.872 million (derived from subscriber revenue over subscriber rpu), so the carrying cost of a subscriber-quarter was $43.28, up from $40.05 in Q3 and down from $62.54 the year before.

Ten best quarters for these companies by this metric

1. SIRI Q3/07: $40.05
2. XM Q3/06: $40.26
3. SIRI Q2/07: $42.34
4. XM Q1/07: $42.96
5. SIRI Q4/07: $43.28
6. XM Q1/06: $43.92
7. XM Q2/07: $44.59
8. SIRI Q1/07: $44.67
9. XM Q3/07: $44.97
10. XM Q2/06: $45.48

For the full-year, carrying costs for Sirius were $1.204 billion, down from 06's $1.396 billion (including equity grants to a certain resident of the Upper West Side). Per subscriber-quarter, they came to $42.53 versus $76.02 for 06.

Best years in terms of carrying-cost per subscriber-quarter

1. SIRI 07: $42.53
2. XM 06: $45.02
3. XM 05: $53.40
4. XM 04: $69.45
5. SIRI 06: $76.02
6. SIRI 05: $103.83
7. XM 03: $161.67
8. SIRI 04: $281.57
9. SIRI 03: $854.56

Through the first three quarters of 2007, XM posted a carrying cost per subscriber-quarter of $44.20.

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