Sirius raises $250M, but analysts are divided on concerns
Sirius Satellite Radio has received a cash infusion of $250 million from Morgan Stanley under a senior secured term loan. The term facility matures in 5.5 years and has covenants similar to Sirius' existing 9 5/8% Senior Notes.
But Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby feels that more financing might be needed if the merger doesn’t go through.
Jacoby noted that there is a risk that Sirius isn't fully funded. Bank of America's models show that, prior to this $250M announcement, Sirius' cash balance would dip to roughly $80M before they achieve consistent positive free cash flow in late 2008.
Bear Stearns analyst Bob Peck wrote in a recent note that they felt the liquidity concerns were overblown. Bear Stearns' own models showed that Sirius needed about $200M, in addition to refinancing the $300M that Sirius owes in early 2009.
In a related point, Ant & Sons points out that there are several catalysts that need to occur before the sentiment on Sirius improves. That despite the fact that Bear Stearns, Barrington and UBS have all upgraded SIRI since late April.


Comments
i have absolutly no info to back this up but i have always felt that XM was the more financialy stable of the two satcasters...
Posted by: rkb ? | June 6, 2007 9:07 AM
>>i have always felt that XM was the more financialy stable of the two satcasters...
That's like saying that a Category 5 hurricane is worse than a Category 4. On the surface you are almost right but your car is still gonna blow down to the next county if you are stuck in it. You can though make yourself feel better by saying that "it was only a 4" but you're still screwed. See?
Posted by: dualsub2006 ? | June 6, 2007 9:13 AM
I guess they need more money to line Mel n' Howie's pockets with.
Posted by: Frank the Frowner | June 6, 2007 9:16 AM
250 million? Great! Howard's salary is half paid now!
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | June 6, 2007 9:22 AM
Clearly I don't understand high finance.... because this seems like a desperate move to me. I'd be selling anything I have in Sirius as fast as possible.
Like I said though, this could be totally normal.
Posted by: BGN | June 6, 2007 10:53 AM
Sirius needs additional funds to keep the company running before profits. The concern is whether they will ever make a profit...lol
Posted by: rjr | June 6, 2007 11:11 AM
I thought I had read somewhere that XM was either running or was on track to be running in the black (barely) already. Anyone?
Posted by: CJ Red ? | June 6, 2007 1:19 PM
"I thought I had read somewhere that XM was either running or was on track to be running in the black (barely) already. Anyone?"
I have heard this as well, they are making a profit not much be it but they are making a profit, Sirius is still years from that
Posted by: Plum | June 6, 2007 1:46 PM
it could be for the tech side. better radios better sats.
Posted by: d.goezinya ? | June 6, 2007 2:32 PM
>>I have heard this as well, they are making a profit not much be it but they are making a profit, Sirius is still years from that
XM IS NOT profitable. Go read their last quarterly report. When a number is reported inside of () that is a loss. For the first quarter of 07 I think it was like $122,000,000. Thats MILLION. LOSS!
You fellars need to read better shit! BOTH Sirius and XM are YEARS away from being profitable. BOTH!
Posted by: dualsub2006 ? | June 6, 2007 4:11 PM
2007 Q1
3/31/07
Net Income (Loss) (122,438)
Yeah....XM is profitable. Notice how it is in (), meaning it is a LOSS, not a GAIN. Fanboys are so annying.
Posted by: Ryan ? | June 6, 2007 7:19 PM
Some of the Wall Street types think that the car company subscriptions are going to bail out this Siriusly Sinking Ship. They don't seem to know, or care, that the promotional subscriptions are purchased at heavily discounted (i.e, sub-market) rates. They also don't seem to know, or care, that most of the people who get the "free" subscriptions with the cars don't renew them after they expire. The car companies love satellite radio because its a cheap "extra" that helps them sell their cars. Too bad it's not a cheap way for Sirius to increase its market-rate, long-term subscriptions.
Watch that Sirius stock drop - from less than $3.00/share to $0.00.
Zero point Zero Zero.
(See how stupid and annoying that gets, Stern fans. I'll stop the Zero point Zero Zero, if you stop the Zero point Zero.)
Posted by: Captain Sludge | June 6, 2007 7:26 PM
I'm sorry, but this is terrible news. Sirius was burning cash too fast while Mel was dancing around his merger smokescreen. How and why XM's management agreed to this merger deal as "equals" is beyond me.
XM's shareholders get the shaft, plain and simple. If the merger goes through, there's another quarter billion dollars in deferred debt. There is no way this should have been a merger of equals. Gary got shamboozled.
Sirius is a sinking ship, especially now with this extra $250 million. Now it will drag XM down with it if the merger goes through. And if the merger doesn't go through, Morgan likely takes over and Sirius shareholders get the shaft. Oh boy, a win-win situation!
If you're still a shareholder of either company, you damn well better get out fast.
*sigh* Two great services, two terrible investments. How could something once so right turn so horribly wrong.
Posted by: SatelliteRadioFan ? | June 6, 2007 8:17 PM
SatelliteRadioFan post is what ive been seeing everyone say, as an investor stand point. Oh well. Satellite Radio was a great idea. Thanks Howard.
Posted by: XMScott ? | June 6, 2007 9:05 PM
>>Gary got shamboozled.
Never forget that XM can opt out of this deal for like $6 million. Or was it 8. XM must not feel too shamboozled because last I checked they were still in it.
Posted by: dualsub2006 ? | June 7, 2007 7:05 AM
>>Some of the Wall Street types think that the car company subscriptions are going to bail out this Siriusly Sinking Ship. They don't seem to know, or care, that the promotional subscriptions are purchased at heavily discounted
Yet all of the XM fan boys run around thumpin their chests declaring that OEM will save the day.
Go look at both companies average revenue per user. OEM is factored in to that. Both are in the $11 range. That's not too shabby. If Sirius and XM want more OEM trial subs to convert then it is up to them to compel people to pay. Easy.
Posted by: dualsub2006 ? | June 7, 2007 7:10 AM
dualsub2006 wrote: "Never forget that XM can opt out of this deal for like $6 million. Or was it 8. XM must not feel too shamboozled because last I checked they were still in it."
I believe if either service pulls out, they owe the other that $175 million fee. Neither service can afford that now (not that it matters).
Posted by: SatelliteRadioFan ? | June 7, 2007 9:01 AM
Sirius is hemoraging money like crazy.. I wonder why?? Gotta feed the doggie, so all the doggie does is eat and crap money... Way to go Mel...
Posted by: hard harry hardon | June 7, 2007 2:16 PM