If he loses his voice? Don't you mean his teeth? O wait he already did.

The fact that XM is more music oriented makes it much more suited for OEM isntalls where broad appeal is much more important than a single act, especailly considering that single act is a shock jock with limited appeal.

It also shows that XM's larger playlist is more a draw than SIRI's narrower playlist. With a merger, I anticipate that XM would lose this larger playlist and this would cause defections.

What happens in less than 3 years when Sterns contract expires? Will he demand 1 billion or will he retire? Either way... the light at the end of the tunnel is a freight train heading right for Sirius.

I watched Robin's interview on Larry King, She illuded to the extreemly real posability that Howard may retire.

With the merger though, surely the Execs will heavily lean toward each companies strengths - keeping XM's Music/programming given it's broad appeal or at least keeping XM's approach to music programming. That's only logical. If so, why would people 'defect', arielsquarefour?
Yes, take the best of each company and you have a winner. Stern and certain sports from Sirius, Music from XM...much of the 'talk' is the same. Mix it together and you have a winner!

I think Logan did a good job explaining that the Arbitron "ratings" for satrad were nonsense. In fact, they were mentions in terrestrial diaries. Also, the "ratings" were during a period when Ron&Fez were on 202 24 hours a day.

I think O&A are pretty full of themselves, but this "data" does ELo and them a grave disservice. I hope you include a look at that in your piece.

All the money Siri and XM spend on sports, you would think the ratings would be higher. I wonder how much it costs XM to put out 20 on 20.

^He does have a point. I find it interesting that given all the variables from what Eric said that the XM numbers weren't possibly even lower for 202. Lets face facts, they were gone a month and a half, so only folks that were interested in Ron & Fez were listening. And then with them taking all O&A mentions in a metro market w/a terrestrial broadcast and giving ALL of these to FM, it does kinda skew the polls, and I hope you get the word out about that Ryan.

That said, I'm not some delusional rabid fanboy who expects them to be doing better than Howards 2 channels. Lets be reasonable "pests". But if it were graphed out properly, I wonder if what he said is true that they are the biggest channel on XM at what, 1.4 million a week? Hell Stern has even told us he brought in a lot more than the 2 million average his two combined channels have if you simply add their cumes.

So I agree, I think it is telling about the different audiences Ryan. And I bet most of the regular SDAR music stations were reported properly and somewhat accurately, even if underrepresented somewhat. If we got the completely accurate numbers, I'm sure it would end up that both "shock jocks" are #1 in their respective companies channels, but Stern obviously brought a large fanbase with him, undeniably. Even the channels that you might expect them to like did much better (like Octane, Hard Attack, etc.) than their XM counterparts and other Sirius music channels. I think this definitely shows that Stern has made Sirius what it is, and that fans are willing to pay for content they love, like morning shock jocks. Perhaps XM should take some heed of this and promote their talk content and try harder to make it more exclusive to themselves.

Ask the CRB.

If SoundExchange holds satrad over a barrel, we'll see more shallow playlists. That won't affect the high end of the curve, but it will the middle part where XM shows its strength.

The sports channels were underepresented because of the same problems as O&A. In markets where sports were broadcast on AM/FM, then terrestrial got the credit. So if you have a book in the NYC comment and listen to a Yankees game on XM, it goes to the terrestrial station. Same thing for NFL and Sirius. And collegiate football on both. And NASCAR on Sirius. Hence why these are very unimpressive figures; because many markets have some shitty AM or FM station that broadcasts the same games.

Also the timing of the report was in some sports off-season, like baseball I believe. Hence those channels are going to be VERY quiet.

"If he loses his voice? Don't you mean his teeth? O wait he already did."

must be upsetting to lose to a balding old man who has lost his teeth....by 800% noless....

stern has cried retirement for 20 years, i doubt he will, but can even a combined company afford another 500m?

Concerning my comment that a merged company would have a smaller playlist, this is based upon comments made by Mel a while back stating he didnt really see a lot of value in the more escoteric music as it has limited listeners. His history indicates that he tends toward the more popular music, not the "B Side" songs. In addition, the larger the playlist, the more cost. He will be under tremendous pressure to reduce costs, and reduciing the playlist will be one way to cut costs.

Just my opinion of course. I like the wierd stuff. I hope it doesnt go away.

Ariel

For those of you wondering what happens to Sirius once Stern leaves, it is important to remember that it was Stern's job to bring his fanbase on board to Sirius.

Now that I have had the Sirius service for 2 years, there is no way I would ever go back to terrestial radio even if Stern retired from Sirius. That is the point whether your interest is in programming on XM or Sirius. Once you get it, you get it.

For me, there is no going back to regular radio.

Ariel says: "Concerning my comment that a merged company would have a smaller playlist, this is based upon comments made by Mel a while back stating he didnt really see a lot of value in the more escoteric music as it has limited listeners."

Mel then doesn't understand I am afraid...it's precisely the esoteric stuff that brings/keeps me on board anyway and probably others...MLB is seasonal afterall! Of course, if the two merge music, the cost to Soundexchange gets cut (theoretically) in half...so even if there is an increase, the net spent on the tunes could be less...or at least negligible enough to not go around cutting the playlists for specific stations. That's my hope anyway.

Howard brought alot of attention to SatRad and if he "retires" I think Siriuis might take a little hit but it will also keep alot of subs who enjoy the service.
Xm might have an upperhand if the merger takes place...since they have more listenership across most of there channels. Time will tell.

I bought Sirius two years ago to get Stern. Since then, I've gotten a radio for my dad (who hates Stern, but listens to everything else), and my wife and daughter listen to the Sirius more than I do (also no Stern). I find it unlikely that if Stern were to leave Sirius that all the listeners will disappear.

I don't care if Stern stays or leaves; its one of the blocked channels on my Sirius radio. All I need is the music. There are several reasons why I chose Sirius over XM.

I find it unlikely that if Stern were to leave Sirius that all the listeners will disappear.
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I never said everyone will leave, however, how many people out there do you know that have a GM car with XM imbedded have not opted to get the subscription and get a sirius after market unit for Stern. I know if 3 friends of mine how have done this.

Will they ever go back to terestrial... No

Will they re cactivate the factory installed head unit and have better reception and better sound... YES.

Not to say that sirius does not have good sound, just that an after market unit compared with a factory installed unit ... well, you get the point

It seems like everybody knew this already. How does this favor a merger?

If Howard gets sick, will XM or Sirius regret the merger, more or less? There's still the infrastructure issue, which will benefit both companies significantly.

I only listen to Sirius for Stern, so will probably cancel when he leaves. I'm already a fan of Internet radio anyway, which is free, and surpasses Sirius by a mile.

But I like O&A and Ron & Fezz, and am waiting for the merger for that. If the merger happens, I'll probably continue to subscribe to the merged company (but not more than $10-15/month).

>> reduciing the playlist will be one way to cut costs.

Ariel, it won't actually. Playlist depth doesn't add cost (apart from the possible initial cost of buying CDs, but even then, the labels and so forth are generally all to happy to provide radio stations with free copies). The main cost of a music channel is the royalties for the digital performance right, publishing, and songwriting. The key variable in there is the spins. If you play 500 songs, it's $x total, regardless of whether you play 500 different songs or alternate a pair of songs for 250 spins each. To put it another way, Deep Tracks costs as much as Top 20 on 20 in that regard (actually, Deep Tracks is cheaper since every second that a DJ is talking is a second that the royalties aren't ticking over, and to skew things even more the typical song on Top 20 on 20 is probably somewhat shorter than the typical song on Deep Tracks; I'd be willing to bet that 20 on 20 averages 19-20 spins an hour vs. 12 or so for Deep Tracks).

Any chance you could post some charts on AQH...

I happen to think arbitorn has just confirmed for the national advertisers that satellite is and will be the platform for reach into radio markets.

other then that the data is a waste, and only shows people want a very broad amount of content with and without advertisment on a national level..

Mel and gary should send arbitron a check for their efforts.or at least a nice thank you card.

but what would I know

Ariel, nice to see you posting here. I enjoyed reading your blog(retail vs oem seems to be playing out as you said it would) any plans to start posting your blog again?

I have explained the playlist cost thing to Ariel, but he has become a total hater at this point. It doent matter what the news, he just assumes the negative side and runs with it as fact...For the FIFTH time..Royalty will be based on total revenue or music based revenue and not based on song library..As for the merged company, one would have to guess they will play what drives the best business for increasing subs..if you dont believe that, you shouldnt invest in either company at this point..

Howard saved Sirius from certain death. They can probably survive now without him, but lord knows their stock will take a dive if something happens to him (so no more talk about him getting hit by anything big).