When Sirius and XM submitted their plans for A La Carte pricing tiers earlier this week, they undoubtedly raised their chances of having the merger approved by the FCC. Chairman Kevin Martin has always had A La Carte on the top of his agenda, and the proposed Sirius-XM plans sets a precedence for the rest of the media industry. Moreover, it supports the thought that the merger is in the public interest, which is the main guiding factor the FCC considers in approving deals like this.

But what about the DOJ?

The Department of Justice has a less transparent process, but their decision to define the relevant market is the keystone to this whole deal.

Luckily. a recent report by Washington Analysis, a firm that conducts economic and political legislative and regulatory analysis, has provided some updates on the review process over at the DOJ. They are optimistic that the merger will be approved by the DOJ, actually going against the current consensus. Here's some key takeaways:

Document Gathering
The DOJ is still in the document gathering stage. Washington Analysis said they "have reason to believe that there are no smoking guns" as was the case in the Wild Oats-Whole Foods review. No news is good news.

Customer Support
The support of OEM auto manufacturers and retailers like Circuit City weighs heavily on the process. These partners have the most to lose if the merger wasn't going to move more units, and the A La Carte pricing should do just that.

Chief Economist
Last September, Professor Dennis Carlton was appointed Deputy Assistant Attorney General for Economic Analysis. According to Washington Analysts, Carlton is from the "dynamic market" school of thought and is likely to have a more expansive view of the audio entertainment sector. The relevant market in turn wouldn't be confined to two satellite radio companies.

Efficiencies
The merger was reviewed by an independent third party which concluded that there would be hundreds of millions in annual savings. Washington Analysis feels this is important in the DOJ review, because it supports the argument that rates would come down after the merger.

The DOJ is generally hard to gauge during interviews because they like to play devil's advocate for each party they talk to. If they think you're in favor of the merger, they'll ask questions that argue in opposition. If they think you oppose it, they'll ask favoring questions. I've talked to several who were interviewed by the DOJ, and they weren't able to determine which way the DOJ was leaning.

From a timing standpoint, you can expect the DOJ to make the first move, followed by the FCC. They didn't in the DirecTV-EchoStar deal, but they acted pretty close to each other (and both rejected the deal so it didn't matter anyway). We can probably expect the DOJ to make their move sometime in late-Fall.

Nothing's changed obviously, it's still a discretionary matter. But this report definitely has some interesting insight behind the process. And in the end, it's only a few more months before this madness is over.