The iPhone is far from perfect. Which makes it, perfect.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007 at 3:06 PM
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The Apple iPhone is coming, and starting this Friday at 6pm, the audio industry is going to change forever. It's not going to happen overnight of course, and everyone (including Apple) knows this. But kidding yourself if you don't think there isn't an evolutionary roadmap already laid out for future versions of the iPhone. This Friday is just setting the stage.
Even if Steve Jobs reaches his goal of 1% of the worldwide cellphone market (that's 10 million units by the way) in 2008 - and I fully expect that he will - the real impact will be felt in 2010 and beyond, when the mobile audio market has matured to something completely different than it is today.
Planned Obsolescence
Apple's slogan should be "We Plan Obsolescence" because they are absolute pros at it. They are masters are creating desire, and continuously getting consumers to plunk down enormous amounts of cash to feed that desire. There's some key features missing from the iPhone - most notably 3G - but I think this was done with a clear plan of making the device accessible to the public.
The early adopters will buy it no matter what, even with dog-slow EDGE and the lack of MMS. Because Apple sells "sex" like no other. The iPhone is sexy. It's also ridiculously expensive. The majority of the people who want the iPhone, can't buy it.
And that makes it even sexier. We always want what we can't have. The iPhone is the femme-fatalle of consumer electronics.
Over-the-air isn't important... yet.
The lack of 3G also allows for Apple to continue to feed it's iTunes business model. Apple has effectively said with this device that over-the-air downloads are not important... yet. The reality? They're right. And the 130 million MP3 players prove this. People have built up vast collections of music on their computers, and spent a lot of effort doing so... they're not willing to part with them just yet.
But when the 3G version comes out, all the early adopters will rush to buy that version. Remember, she's the femme-fatalle.
Apple will then be able to sell the "old" iPhone for a lower price. Those who couldn't afford the $500 iPhone will jump to get it at $300. And just as Apple opened up the door for iPod owners by selling an MP3 player without a screen, they'll create an entry-level market for people who will lust after a 2.5G cell phone.
The 3G iPhone will subsequently set the stage for Apple's over-the-air music service. Apple will most definitely have a Mobile iTunes as a result of the iPhone. But they need the infrastructure to be there first. And the right terms.
Radio being "live" isn't always a benefit
Right now, the only saving grace for the radio industry - and that includes terrestrial radio and satellite radio - is that "live" content can be received while on-the-go. The reality is that most of the content we listen to isn't really "live" anyway (most folks on the West Coast know exactly what I'm talking about).
And in a time-shifted TiVo world, we've become more and more accustomed to consuming displaced content. For a growing number of people, "live" actually has a negative connotation... because there's no control. You can't skip commercials. You can't jump to the next section. You only consume "live" content because you forgot to schedule a recording.
Apple knows this (they've helped foster a time-shifted culture afterall) and that's why the iPhone is currently dependent on side-loading content. Eventually, it's not a hard leap of effort for Apple to allow you to access your iTunes library over a cellular network. Music, talk - and yes even news, weather and traffic - will easily be downloaded to the device, for listening in your own accord. It'll probably be a lot like Slacker, in that you're not listening to streaming content, just cached content.
And for most, there's little difference.
The only thing that being "live" contributes, is the ability for listener interaction. But with terrestrial radio listening on the decline, and the growth satellite radio slowing a little sooner than expected, it's obvious that the general consumer is willing to give up that interactivity for control.
But hey, that's all just pipe dreams. This Friday is the reality. As a big, keyboard-less, extremely-expensive, and slow-ass 2.5G device goes to market.
There's nothing to worry about from that... right?
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Comments
I will dump Verizon and buy an iPhone. Mostly because I love Apple products and I resent Verizon's treatment of Mac users as 2nd class citizens (crippled Bluetooth, no iSynch support, etc...).
However, I'm going to wait at least a year before I invest in it. 1st generation hardware is usually buggy as hell....
Wonder if I'll be able to stream Sirius on it by then...
Posted by: MikeHunt ? | June 27, 2007 3:40 PM
As much as I want one, I will wait for 3G and voice dialing (that may be a software upgrade later).
Newsweek gave it a great review. Not pefect, but pretty friggin' awesome.
Posted by: iband | June 27, 2007 4:23 PM
Under this analysis, this is a huge deal for podcasters.
Posted by: Jersey Todd | June 27, 2007 4:37 PM
For the record, I just bought myself an 8525 in lieu of an iPhone. I'm with most people - I want one, but am skeptical at spending that much money on a first-gen product.
But I still really want one. :)
Posted by: Ryan Saghir ? | June 27, 2007 4:38 PM
Fuck that. My PPC-6700 will do almost everything I need better than this expensive turd. Yea its not sexxxxy, but at $150 or less, I can buy this and do everything the iPhone can and more for a lot less. Yes they are repackaging and adding sexxy to whats previously been the phone for business people, but I see no reason to dump my much better service with Verizon for a carrier that has almost ZERO coverage in my area and the nearest store to by an iPhone almost 50 miles away. Blech.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | June 27, 2007 4:53 PM
Ryan,
This is the most thoughtful analysis of the iPhone I've seen.
Even the big guns over at NYTimes and Washington Post have failed to see the reasoning behind G2.5 and G3.
What an eloquent way to showcase the importance of having an upgrade path.
If you ask me, SIRIUS and XM have failed to keep aftermarket music fans impassioned exactly for this reason.
Jeff
Posted by: TulaneJeff ? | June 27, 2007 5:19 PM
this thing looks pretty awesome, but i'll wait for the version that has an 80 GB or larger Hard Drive (hopefully those large capacity SSD flash drives will lower in price dramatically) also, i want 3G
Hopefully, I won't have to wait too long for these features....
Posted by: baldrick5 ? | June 27, 2007 6:01 PM
That was a great review....3G is great i have it on my samsung blackjack and my LG cu500, its wonderful...the iphone will be filled with flaws..and no 3g sucks.. btw im on the internet on my blackjack right now..and its blazing fast! boo too the iphone
Posted by: Roland | June 27, 2007 6:28 PM
am i the only one who could care less about the i phone?
i am not a fan of cell phones (don't have one)
and i can wait til i get home to use the computer.
Posted by: d.goezinya ? | June 27, 2007 6:35 PM
Yes, d.goezinya, you are the only one :-)
Posted by: fog city dave | June 27, 2007 7:25 PM
The iPhone is sexy. It's also ridiculously expensive. The majority ... can't buy it.
Bosh.
24 months of usage is $500 + 24 X $60 = $81/month. (Yeah, "plus...") In contrast, I pay T-Mo something like $75 a month for a few more minutes/month talktime, plus clunky, slowish access (not too likely I'll shell out to ditch my GPRS RAZR for some EDGE device) thru my phone and direct WiFi access for my laptop.
You could argue what's the better deal -- T-Mo has a huge number of locations, including the Starbucks across the street from my office and I almost always travel with my laptop -- but you can't say that another $6/month is a deal-breaker.
Yes, $81+extra/month is a lot of money for some people. But for those who live constantly plugged into the inter-tubes, it's about the going rate. For a beautiful gizmo.
Posted by: Walt French | June 27, 2007 7:55 PM
Radio is dieing since the large corporate control sought to "package" content nationally. The iPod is contributing to it by allowing people to listen to their desired content. Pushing it wirelessly is a "cure" for a non-existent problem.
As to the contention that the iPhone is "extremely-expensive" you haven't done your homework. Over the 2 year contract an iPhone is cheaper than Verizon's Motorola Q!!! See: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q2.07/244A57B2-B535-4146-A5C4-F3804E4187A4.html for an in depth comparison. And you get a video iPod too.
As to 2.5G vs. 3G and "planned obselecence" I would remind you that Verizon turned Apple down. Had they partnered with Apple the phone would have been 3G from the start. Once AT&T gets their 3G net in wider availability Apple will be selling a U.S. version of their european 3G version that we'll see around year's end.
The iPhone will change the industry. Due to the poor OSes now on competing devices it might take a while for good competitors to emerge. I hope they do. If they don't Apple will take over the "smart phone" market where some competitors cost as much or more than the current iPhone. Value will out and I suspect Apple will have more than 50% of the smart phone market by 2010.
Apple develops new features in their products more effectively due to their control of the OS and software features. Others are forced to wait for Microsoft or Palm to provide them the ability to innovate. It's been a long wait for substandard capabilities. Perhaps we'll see some investment by the phone manufacturers or service providers to develop better OSes themselves. I hope so.
Posted by: REB | June 27, 2007 9:47 PM
Kudos here too, for an excellent piece about a piece of technology that truly will change the game. Every so often, an innovation comes around that sets a new standard others weren't even thinking about. I think this is one of them.
Every other cell/smart phone out there now looks like it was used by Abraham Lincoln. It shows that good design still matters, and since media and communication are THE issues that have restructured our lives, it makes it that much more important/
Posted by: Max | June 27, 2007 9:50 PM
> I resent Verizon's treatment of Mac users as 2nd class citizens (crippled Bluetooth, no iSynch support, etc...).
AT+T, Sprint, etc. have been crippling their BT on newer devices too. They're all "big, evil" corporations and ALL out to screw you.
And guess what - Mac users ARE 2nd class citizens to nearly everyone in the retail world. Small marketshare = less shelf space, and less support overall. C'mon, I thought from those annoying commercials you could just plug in the latest devices (like the hot new camera from Japan) and they all worked like magic? You plug your iDevice into your iMac and iDrivers loads and PRESTO! I love my iLife!
Posted by: SteveWeBB ? | June 27, 2007 10:36 PM
I think they didn't do 3G cause it wasn't ready (using AT&T). They do not have the coverage. As for iTunes Mobile, it is just HARD. They seemed to have enough trouble getting this one out. It think they weighted the options and tried not to bite off too much at one time. I think it shows good product planning. It is better than the Vista method of delay after delay because they tried to do too much and still didn't get it all done.
Posted by: cyclopsebunny ? | June 28, 2007 12:14 AM
The iPhone definitely is sexy. It's going to be my first cell phone. I think its Wi-Fi will rock.
Posted by: Neil Anderson ? | June 28, 2007 1:29 AM
Kudos on a well-thought out article. Yes, the iPhone is not perfect but it has what Apple deemed essential to sell to a targeted market as a 1st gen device. As it always does, Apple surveyed what was possible (on its own and with its partners), determined what was essential (what features to have and what not to have), and strategized a plan to add new "essential" features over time.
If Verizon had said yes, Apple likely would've had a different set of features in its 1st gen, and a different plan for subsequent generations. In that parallel universe, Apple may have been emphasizing 3G and the Internet even more.
In any case, I expect new web apps (see reader.mac.com already), new iTunes features (rumored songs-to-ringtones in 7.3), and an iPhone software upgrade before we get to a gen 2 iPhone. Each will make the gen 1 iPhone more desirable, and pull in another set of buyers into the iPhone market, resulting in another wave of sales. The possibilities are huge.
Posted by: mark | June 28, 2007 2:13 AM
Part of the reason Verizon lost the deal was that they wanted to sell it all their retail locations. Apple didn't want to let them sell it at Wal-Mart, who also sells Verizon plans. That wasn't how Apple wanted it.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | June 28, 2007 7:38 AM
Verizon and Sprint cripple their BlueTooth, AT&T is the only provider that doesn't. I use it everyday to send myself new, free ringtones & pix that I can create myself. That was the only reason I signed up with them. I've had all 4 major carriers and the coverage is pretty similar much the same.
Posted by: PFreak ? | June 28, 2007 4:46 PM
Wake me when a carrier other than AT&T has them. Maybe then I will want one.
Posted by: MeatFarley ? | June 28, 2007 4:58 PM
I bought a Blackberry Curve today and that is all I have to say about the iPhone.
Posted by: Rich ? | June 28, 2007 5:47 PM