The November 27th issue of Forbes Magazine has a scathing article, entitled Dethroned, talking about Howard Stern's move to Sirius and how he has "slipped as a cultural force."
The article cites several pieces of data to prove it's point - some of which are legitimate - others are unrelated in my opinion.
For example, Forbes states that Stern's media mentions are down 23% year-to-date compared with 2004. It also highlights that Sirius has less of an audience than his terrestrial show. These are facts that can't be disputed and are related to the story.
Unrelated is Sirius' loss of $853 million last year, and the fact that Sirius' stock is down 44% since his first show debuted - there's a lot more factors in stock price than just Stern. It is intriguing to learn the 31.3 million shares Stern had handed to him back in January - then valued at $236 million - are now worth $116 million today (who knows if he's dumped any along the way).
Forbes does stick to facts though, if only to prove their point. They acknowledge his "antics" at CBS helped add 2.2 million subscribers for Sirius in 2005. They also point out that Sirius added 1.8 million subscribers since Stern's first show - but that rival XM added 1.2 million subscribers during the same time, sans Stern.
This graph illustrates the figures very nicely:
And while the "dethroned" concept is probably only of interest to celebrity-watchers and the media (since they loathed referring to Stern as their "King"), the data itself`makes some good points - and if anything wakes up those who thought this was going to be an ongoing trend. I think that's really the bottom line here. Everyone needs to understand that there's a finite number of hardcore Stern fans, and there was a finite date to hear him on terrestrial, so this created an event. This is not a sustaining event though - and the numbers alone show it.
Where do we go from here? That's the question.
the good news is sirius only needs 900 million subs to become profitable .
Uhm...DUH?
Let's look at the facts:
- Of course Stern's media mentions will be lower now than in 2004 for a number of reasons. He publicly came out against Bush, was kicked off Clear Channel, and announced he was moving to satellite.
- I'm not sure anyone said that he'd have the same size audience as when he was on terrestrial radio. He only needs to bring in enough new listeners to cover his $500 mil, which he seems to be on track with.
- Before Stern announced he was moving to satellite, Sirius was a distant second in subscriber base to XM. To not only catch up, but surpass in subscriber growth is pretty darn good.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Thanks Forbes.
This is why OEM is the key to sat radio success, not retail. If it comes with the car, folks are more likely to pay a subscription -- adding hardware to a car will be a small percentage of sat radio purchases in the future.
razzle dazzle!
a certain shock jock's numbers are slipping on sirius. i won't say who it is, but how-ard is it to get 2.2 million listeners to switch to sat-rad? it's a "stern" reality for this former king-of-all-media...
shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...
He must be corrrrrrected.
where do I start?
Ok
#1 25% of people subscribing to sirius still site Stern as the main reason.
....so article is BS
with that aside, I would like to see media mentions over the past 10 years not just this year compared to last year. just the 500 mill deal filled the press for a month.
#2 hits on his website are down. now thats proof but were they gradualy going down anyway over the last 10 years? or did they grow only from increased internet access?
Bottom line is that on terestrial he claimed 22 million listeners in how many markets that reached over 200 million plus listeners in the USA. a listener is someone who tuned in atleast once a week. of these listeners it was estimated that 5-10 million were daily listeners. thats 2.5-5% of the potential listenres in all markets.
Now on the other side. Stern essentially put sirius on the map. without him I doubt they would have even hit 2 million by now. Not that stern got 3 million listeners just that he made people aware of sirius resulting in higher subscriber addition rates.
so.. Dethroned? I don't think he ever had a throne.
and I think he did pull in a huge number of subscribers for sirius. However this is fading month by month year by year and sirius will beat XM in Net subs this q4 but what happens after that? XM is fighting back with some pretty good punches and long term investments that will simply take some time to come around.
Notice something funny about the stock graph?
Look at how the black dot is on the right for the first two graphs, then switches to the right for the third (the stock price one). They're trying to pin the stock dip on Howard, but the price had actually been dropping for over a year already after the initial burst of interest surrounding not only Howard but also Mel Karmazin signing up. I own shares and love the service, but it's still a speculative investment, which isn't to say Sirius hasn't been reliably living up to each target it has set.
Who Dethroned him exactly? That's the question...
'Dethroned' is a bad word to use. 'Lack of interest' would be more appropriate.
It happens with all entertainers.
I was intrigued by the Forbes "Dethroned" article you referenced, so I clicked on the link. I was immediately taken to a page where the magazine was offering me 2 free print issues of FORBES in exchange for my providing them with minimal information about myself.
Now this is especially insulting when the author, Evan Hessel accuses Sirius (and Stern) of doing the same thing with their 2-day Internet freebie in October. If that isn't the pot calling the kettle black! Another popular idiom that would describe Mr Hessel's piece of schlock is Figures don't lie, but liars can figure.
In his piece the author plays fast and loose with the facts and figures. Mr Hessel makes it seem as if the facts support his arguments. Howard Stern has no more to do with the value of the stock than Mr Hessel has to do with good journalism. The reasons for satellite radio's stock value (Sirius and XM) are complex and have more to do with such things as stock dilution (actual number of shares floated), which in the case of Sirius has increased.
When Mr Hessel says that Sirius has gained 1.8 milion subscribers since Stern's first broadcast, he ignores the number of subscribers built up while Stern was still at CBS/Infinity. And let's all remember another important fact that seems to have slipped Mr Hessel's memory. According to his contract, Stern was required to bring only 1 million new subscribers to Sirius for the whole thing to pay for itself. Howard Stern has accomplished that, and more.
Mr Hessel, no matter how you try and twist the facts, Howard Stern HAS earned his keep, and he will continue to bring new subscribers in the 4 years he has left on his contract. You can take that to the bank!
nigga please! jeff is a douche.
you know, i was gonna rebut, but i think i'll just leave it at that.
Thanks for bringing this Forbes article back up. I had almost forgotten about it.
Yeah yeah, and the iPod is going to be killed by cell phones. They need to keep trying!
the good news is sirius only needs 900 million subs to become profitable
Well, I'm not sure Sirius' profitability has much to do with Howard as a "cultural force." "Out of sight, out of mind" at work here.
Who Dethroned him exactly? That's the question...
He seems to have dethroned himself. He voluntarily cut himself off from most of his listeners. If you reach less of the population, you become less of a "cultural force."
His peak, as a "cultural force" was probably around the Private Parts era. After you write a book then make a big movie, how do you top yourself?
Especially as you have effectively exiled yourself?
The alternative? Do an O&A.....
The problem with the "dethroned" premise is that nobody has come close to taking his place. CBS has been forced to replace him with second-rate clones, and perhaps only Jon Stewart even comes close in influnce as a current "cultural force".
Stern knew what he was doing when he left the terrestrial cesspool, he knew he would start with a smaller audience.
The integrity of his craft was what mattered, and the outstanding quality of his show on Sirius is proof that he was 100% right.
I like how all of these articles print Stern as a failure. He's NOT a failure on Sirius, Sirius has made enough money for the deal to pay for itself and more. OF COURSE he has less listeners, less media attention, etc. O&A, Bubba, or anyone else who moves exclusively to satellite radio will.
Anyways, just for Forbes to write this article on him shows that he's still something worth reading about.
Uh, yeah, right...
Uhh, yeah, right...
My god. what everyone seems to miss over and over again is the fact that Howards old boss and now current boss Mel, destroyed the quality of FM radio by inserting so many commercials that it drove people to seek an alternative...... howard.
now that he or any other Shock jock or jocks is on a medium that offers a true variety without comercials on 69 channels (both services) there is less of an interest to listen to them. What howard has is a loyal fan base
My god. what everyone seems to miss over and over again is the fact that Howards old boss and now current boss Mel, destroyed the quality of FM radio by inserting so many commercials that it drove people to seek an alternative...... howard.
now that he or any other Shock jock or jocks is on a medium that offers a true variety without comercials on 69 channels (both services) there is less of an interest to listen to them. What howard has is a loyal fan base thats it.
IMHO Howard has dethroned himself just by virtue of the fact that he takes so much damned vacation time. As much as I dislike terrestrial radio with its incessant commercials and bland fare, at least the jocks show up for work each day. "The Howard Stern Show" has finally jumped the shark and Howard has no one to blame but himself.
Since when does slamming George Bush get you less media attention?
Don be sayin no nigga pleas cracker potata head. Go Tom joyna!