Ugh. I am a huge XM fan and of O&A inparticular, but I wish I would have never bought it (XMSR) when I did or at all. It is tanking and these numbers won't help.

Everyday this week has been a new 52 week low and the hiring (Or re-assigning) of Davis is not helping. I hope he fixes the business side of the house in DC!

WOW--This is going to bring both down in price--They could go as low as 7.7 million?--Now i wonder if its a slowdown for BOTH or just XM as Sirius is having problems with FCC too--If Sirius finishes above 6.2 and XM below 8--they are truly going to be equals by start of 2008

Ch Ch Ch CHURN! I'm outta here! xm is sheeit sho 'nuff!

SO?
Wish i could find that post of the A-Hole who said "wait till the end of the year PNess"..

Bawhahahahahaa....

What? this Hugh guy that I'm working with now has no idea about anything. The management team here at xm is even worse than the on-air talent. Sure hope when this turd known as xm hits the bowl I will be able to get Ophra to hire me on.

Let me ask you something, why do you want XM to fail?

Do you seriously think that would be good for sirius?

Of course I dont think I can expect anything logical to come from sombody who calls themselves "PNess". Its like penis, only spelled different!!!! Does your principal know youre using the school computers to post on Orbitcast?

Rule 1 in business:

Underpromise and overdeliver.

I've never said it before, but...

FUCK!

The subscriber race is the beauty contest in satrad but I don't think it's the most important metric. A company that turns a profit off 6 million subscribers is better than one that loses money with 10 million. XM is belatedly realizing that it's all about smart management.

What I don't understand is how the gross and net subscriber figures ended up so different. Am I right that losing 500,000 customers out of 7 million equals a 7% churn rate? That seems much higher than in years past. If my math is right I'd be interested to see what Sirius is doing.

As far as churn rate goes, Sirius has one smart idea: the lifetime subscription. I'm assuming that someone who ponies up $500 and then later switches to XM or gives up on satrad entirely is still counted as a happy subscriber. Does anyone know how many Sirius subscribers are potentially ghosts?

Nope my bosses have no problem with using the computers to visit this site.

i want XM to fail because i have a vested interest in the stock going down further then it already has. Shorting is a great way to gain a boat load of money.

Also i like to burn people who busted my hump when we talked about the last quarter results and end of year outcome, which i was quite correct.

...and O&A sticker zombies really piss me off cause they cannot even step into reality about who O&A are and their limited impact to XM.

OMG this is absolute bullshit. I have been sitting on 1000 shares since $28 (thank god I hedged at $14). Why would I be optomistic about anything XM is accomplishing? Lowered sub guidance twice, still reporting huge losses. I can't believe this shit. This business model doesn't work.

You walk into Best Buy and look at both services. The salesman says this one has howard stern and this one doesn't. "Well how much are they?" Same price. Ok I'll take the Stern radio. That makes all the sense in the world. This was a very costly mistake. Sell Sat radio, buy Apple.

>> ...and O&A sticker zombies really piss me off cause they cannot even step into reality about who O&A are and their limited impact to XM. >>

Of course there's a limited impact -it's called they don't have $100 million tied up in their contracts for the next 5 years...

This is not only bad news for XM, but for the industry in general. It's not like one service is THAT much superior to the other, so if one's doing poorly you can bet the other is too (in general).

I dont get it. XM stock goes down 60 cents or so within 15 minutes of opening today. It is now an hour later and it is currently up 40 cents. I know it wont stay up, but why would it climb at all after this news?

so if XM goes down sirius goes down also? sirius expects to be in cash flow in january with 100 million 5 year contract.so if that comes true then sirius fails also?

Fact: 643,500 Sirius subscribers' entire subscription fee does nothing but pay Howard's wages.

"I dont get it. XM stock goes down 60 cents or so within 15 minutes of opening today. It is now an hour later and it is currently up 40 cents."

its called day trading manipulation.

gee that 500m contract really seems not to be paying off huh? 600k vs 300k subs last quarter?
_______________________
"so if one's doing poorly you can bet the other is too (in general)."

I also like to see XM fail because even when they are failing people will find anyway to lie about how great XM is doing.

>>"As far as churn rate goes, Sirius has one smart idea: the lifetime subscription."

Meh. I thought about it when I first got Sirius, but I believe it's based on the life of the hardware. Sirius' hardware is, to put it kindly, adequate at best. I opted for the year to year plan on the hope that Sirius might someday release a decent live-portable receiver. Still holding my breath.

>>"I dont get it. XM stock goes down 60 cents or so within 15 minutes of opening today. It is now an hour later and it is currently up 40 cents. I know it wont stay up, but why would it climb at all after this news?"

Probably the endless takover rumors that continue to foat around and are now being revived because XM had a shitty quarter. A takeover, by the way, would suck for customers. Monopolies are only good for monopolists.

>>"...and O&A sticker zombies really piss me off cause they cannot even step into reality about who O&A are and their limited impact to XM"

Heh. Well said. :)

About the stock price, notice that the "uptick" was just enough to push the price back to around the previous day's closing.

XM's stock opened low because of panic moves by investors scared off by the early-morning news. Other investors who saw the news as neutral jumped in to snag a good price and equilibrium was re-established.

I think we'll see continued downward pressure if XM revises its subscriber goal under 8 million. But what Wall Street is looking at primarily is the cash-flow-positive outlook, which XM insists is on track for the end of the year. If they miss *that* by a lot, look out.

XM stock is up because of this PR:
http://www.xmradio.com/newsroom/screen/pr_2006_07_27b.html

Ouch. I wonder how many stock holders are going down with the ship. Buy when it gets to $3. Investors hate satellite radio. I've been on investment forums and defended sirius until i turned blue, but they keep digging up financial forcasts and all kinds of negative shit that you really can't argue with. When these companies lose so much money it doesn't really matter what the content is. That of course is the investment view. People who actually expierence the product wonder why doesn't everyone have this.

XM needs to find a way to create buzz again. What can XM do to have their howard stern affect? I say nothing. they will continue to get lucky on GM's cars and maybe they will steal whoopi from testical radio.

TO those who are posting as XM employees: stop it. You're not funny, and you're not clever. It isn't one of those "FACE!" things, it's just dumb. We all know that Hugh Panero, Nate Davis, and Oprah would never post here.

I'll admit it, O&A's impact to XM as a whole is low, but at least they're not the only egg in the basket.

Just remember, we always win in the end. Now that the boys are on Free FM thousands of people are catching the virus everyday and buyin XM to help support the boys. XM is huge and getting bigger every day, the little doggie company doesn't stand a chance.

now ramone is being funny.
you XM listeners need to think possitive. it will be fine.XM is not the dominate force it once was.

now ramone is being funny.
you XM listeners need to think possitive. it will be fine.XM is not the dominate force it once was.

sorry.hit the button twice

did ya?

see how can you not grow to hate XM

"Just remember, we always win in the end. Now that the boys are on Free FM thousands of people are catching the virus everyday and buyin XM to help support the boys. XM is huge and getting bigger every day, the little doggie company doesn't stand a chance"

This makes no sence. they are on "free" radio so people are going to come and pay? HUH?

not really a big effect yet.

did ya?
did ya really?

tell em' Fred!!!

O & A Free FM and XM Forever
Spread the Virus!

I thought Ramone was banned?

>>Meh. I thought about it when I first got Sirius, but I believe it's based on the life of the hardware.

Yes, Sirius' "Lifetime" subscription is for the lifetime of the receiver. It is not transferable to a new receiver. So, basically, if the equipment lasts for 5 years, you're saving money. If it lasts 6 months, you're SOL.

I'll stick with my year to year subscription, and not have to worry so much if I want to get better equipment.

to all XM listners:

i'm sorry ramone and NWXMDUDE are attached to XM we would cancel their subs but since were in the craper now we need all the subs we can thank you.

XM MANAGEMENT

XM sucks, Tell em' Jim!!

>> Just remember, we always win in the end.

I fell backwards in my chair LMAO. He can't read, can he?

I think they'll surpass there 8.2 million subscribers once Opera starts in September, cuz she bring in a lot of female listeners.

Welcome to the limit.

They revised guidance because of the receiver shortage, not because they are simply failing to add subs. They will make this goal sooner than they anticipate but they want to be on the lower side so when the numbers come out that they did more than 8 mil., people will be estatic and buy more stock.(Sirius won't do this IMO because they want people to believe that they have the upper hand but when they end up short on subs come years end because of a receiver shortage then people will look at them like their crazy because their bring up something that, by then, would be 6 month old news.)

You can say all you want about O&A but I guaruntee a high precentage of those net subs were from O&A's advertising on FM. And like Brian said.....O&A aren't the only eggs in XM's basket so when the new marketing team gets rolling they will have more than just 1 egg to promote. The old marketing team failed to see the potential in O&A's FM deal and didn't take advantage of the advertising and sponsership tie-in's like they should of. XM could of gotten involved in the comedy tour but they didn't and this will cost them valuable potential subs.

We all know changes don't happen over night...I mean look at Sirius. It only took them 3 years to figure out something, and yet their still trailing.

Actually, if i remember correctly, the lifetime sub is transferrable either 2 or 3 times for something like $75.

Still I think most people are not going to be willing to spend an extra $500 on a lifetime sub after buying a receiver.

Im an XM sub and I would not consider doing that in case i ever want to switch or whatever

If I can get XM for $10, Ill be buying a lot here. XM is aware of the opperational issues and is going to fix them.

The best investements in the world are situations like this. The problem is the worst investments in the world are almost indistiguishable.

The fact is, IF XM survives, it will be worth a hell of a lot more than $3 billion.

Sirius is worth 2X XM. That's some BS.

-Lord Westfall

THE HOWARD STERN EFFECT!!!!

I love it. O&A were nothing for XM, although their zombie fans were voicing otherwise. Opie always said that XM would trounce SIRIUS and Howard's interest would only last a month or two. Were into month 6 and the STERN EFFECT is going as strong as ever. HAHAHAHHAHAHA!!!!
XM and O&A blow!!

They revised guidance because of the receiver shortage, not because they are simply failing to add subs
_________________________
How do you explain the loss of all those subs and the high turnover?

The company said its churn rate, or the rate of subscriber cancellations, rose to 1.83%, up from 1.64% in the first quarter
_____________________
how about the cost
"XM's gross cost for adding each new subscriber increased to $112 in the quarter, up from $98 in the same period a year ago"
Subscriber acquisition cost was $64, compared with $50 in the same quarter last year

i think there is more problems here then you want to admit.

dont forget its not going to get easier, you still have the nascar hurddle next year as well as the O&A depature...yes its going to happen.

The SIRIUS LIFETIME SUBCRIPTION FACTS:
1. It is a lifetime subscription and does not apply to the life of the unit.

2. You may upgrade or change your unit up to 3 times under the lifetime sub. 3 times is max.
3. If your unit breaks they will replace it for free under the warranty and your lifetime subcription will still be in effect.
4. If you decide to purchase a newer model, you will be charged a $75 fee.

I have the lifetime sub and love it!! My radio was crushed to bits and SIRIUS was kind enough to send me a replacement and didnt count it as 1 of 3.
Hooray to SIRIUS!

xm hit over 7 mil today. yet sirius still has not hit 5.

PNess if you feel that Nascar is worth $110 million then feel free to act like you know everything about everything since your an expert now. Your name alone looses you credibility for anything.

O&A will not leave XM especially when they just signed with XM not long ago for 2 years. Something XM nor O&A would do before then. They only wanted to sign for 1 year at a time because they were unsure how it would be. If they were sooo unhappy with XM then they wouldn't of signed for 2 years let alone at all. They love the XM portion of the show because they can do what they want and say what they wish. The best parts of the show happen from 9-11/12 because they get to do stuff they can't do on terrestrial. Sure they wish XM would do more for them, but as long as they are doing what they want they are happy.

They will not be leaving XM before Sirius loses Howard because he's not stayn after his 5 years are up. Afterall, he's already got his retirement money plus his age could claim him before the 5 years is up.

Ahigeeheebeejeebees, all of our names are fucked up. and sirius listeners get over 5 hours of real uncensored Stern compared to your 2 1/2. Your name sounds like how my girlfriend sneezes.

>>pluse his age could claim him before his 5 years are up>>

asshole have you've seen
ANTHONY!!!!

So you automatically assume that my name is not Peter Ness?

wow, must be that O&A humor rubbing off.

as for Siri i agree they are in trouble in 4 years as much as xm is in trouble next year.

no one said nascar was worth 110m, but is SUBS. ITS churn. ITS RISK.

stocks are not traded on current, they are traded on future potental and risk.

Oh and when you talk with O&A at your next party can you ask them some more about what they are going to do....cause you seem to know them very well to claim they are not leaving.

PNess, I read your earlier post about stock shorting and wanting XM to fail. I'm curious as to why you come to Sirius' defense most of the time. Wouldn't you make even more money shorting if Sirius were in trouble also? You seem to have a strange loyalty.

LOL i rode SIRI up to about 8 and then down again to 5....

they are hardly the epic money making company either.

siri is stagnent now till profit appears...and XM will do the same from a low of 9 ish