If the companies merge, who defines the culture? I really enjoy XM's music culture. I get the impression (perhaps incorrectly), that XM really understands the serious music fan. This is despite having the name 'XM' instead of 'Serious.' ;)

On the upside, it would be great to get rid of the duplication (the simulcasts) so that satrad could have more overall bandwidth. I would rather have each company purchase slightly more bandwidth for their service instead of merging. Personally, I find XM's channel selection very good. Although they did drop two stations that I like off the satellite. Adding more bandwidth would allow them to put back the channels and possibly upgrade the quality.

Let's drop the merger talk and start talking about more bandwidth!

I have gone bake and forth with this and all I can do as a Satellite radio fan is wait and read Orbitcast and see what comes of this. My gut feeling is a negative one reguarding this merger. Maybe we (the consumer) will benefit or maybe not.

Another reason the FCC may allow them to merge - just came to me..

In a few years (merge complete), the FCC license duopoly / monopoly ends. Anyone who wants to jump into the sat business may ... and whala ... competition is back. Maybe the old satellites would get sold for big money to an Apple or a Microsoft with deep pockets.

Why couldn't this happen ?

It'd be funny if they tried it half-assed, both thinking it would fail, it goes through, and they're stuck trying to figure it out.

Lets consider that the equipment is incompatible. One signal for both would not work. What will they do for consumers who are on the wrong side of the satellite fence, replace their radios free? Additionally, both sides have already shelled the huge startup costs of two seperate satellite systems. Do they use Sirius' satellites or XMs? What do they do with the ones they don't use? Lastly, does the consumer really believe that the cost of a subscription would go down? Both owe huge amounts of money, that saving in operating costs will not trickle down to the consumer, they will pay bills with it so they can start making a profit sooner. Without any competition, prices will not be going down. What we need is a price war while we still have two very competitive companies.. Sirius needs to lower their subscriber cost to say $9.99..

So, this is kind of like the groundhog, "Two more months of BS".

Thanks for the update Ryan. With all the rumors for months I am very surprised it hasn't happened already. Strange to see such a multitude of rumor articles almost every day with no actual news.

It would be good for the music companies too. They would only have to sue one company instead of two.

All the money they have in Stern, I wonder why Sirius wants to merge?

The need has been so very obvious and clear cut to anyone that has business sense. The economics are there in spades, the programing advantage smacks one along side the head, the outcome without a merger is dire and obvious, done correctly FCC/DOJ approval are almost assured as the Government has interests in the survival of satrad for personal and economic interests.

Anyone who can't see the need and desirability of this long overdue merger has never run a business, or lacks basic common sense.

I really don't care, as long as they don't screw up Squizz and drop O&A/Ron & Fez. I live in the South where all terrestrial stations are country or rap and I have no desire to listen to Stern. Not bashing, just don't care to listen to him myself. If they keep these channels the same, then I'd be happy to get to enjoy NFL football, NASCAR, NHL, NBA, MLB, Indycar, and have all the talk radio options. Otherwise, I will likely cancel if they merge and blow out all of XM's content.

As an anti-merger type, I'm praying that this is just a concerted effort by the companies' PR depts to change the subject until the bottom lines look better. Maybe they think they can float merger rumors along until this fall- when, hopefully, they'll be poised to string together a few quarters (or more) of CFBE. That renders the merger talk moot and the stock doesn't totally fall apart in the meantime.

If Sirius continues to dominate in the "choice" aspect (and they most likely will), XM will need to merge to survive. XM bet on technology and hardware, Sirius bet on content first then hardware parity. Sirius won. I don't know if a merger is best for consumers, it probably is best for shareholder value.

I'll say it again.. Sirius (God bless them) has nothing to offer me programming-wise. Nothing at all. I have owned both Sirius and XM and XM is by far my personal choice of the two. If there is a merger, I will cancel. Period.

I've noticed something about all this merger talk...
Sirius fans want a merger and XM fans do not... Whats up with that? I thought Sirius has been doing so well (taking over the market share, cash flow positive, etc..) Maybe things aren't so great over there at Sirius after all....

You guys are not focusing on the biggest issue of them all...if the companies merger, will xm411.com acquire siriusbackstage.com or vice versa? Should we have a separate thread on that? ;)

That last post must have come in from an alternate universe.

1. XM's needing to merge or not has nothing to do with Sirius' success in the (constantly shrinking) retail market. XM simply needs to bring in more money than it spends... if most of that comes from OEM deals, so be it. That cash is just as legitimate as cash from retail sales. Consider XM's health independently of Sirius': it's growing quickly and controlling costs. Whether or not it has more net subs than Sirius in five years is an absolutely irrelevant beauty contest.

2. Perhaps because XM realizes that sub totals are relatively superficial, it hasn't been fighting as hard for the retail market as Sirius has. The marketing just isn't there... and that's probably the bulk of the reason why Sirius is hot right now, since objectively there's little to no difference in content quality. XM must have done a cost/benefit analysis and decided that spending the money on brand awareness just doesn't pan out now that most people who are motivated to go out and buy a satellite radio already have done so, and most everyone else is better served through the OEM channel.

3. Sirius hasn't "won" anything, since it isn't the market share leader, it isn't healthier financially, and it doesn't have anything on the horizon that is going to change the equation. Face facts: both companies will probably stabilize around 10-15 million subscribers. In the end it's a matter of who can maintain that count while spending less than they bring in. XM seems to be a lot more cogniscent of cost control while Sirius is still chasing quarterly net-sub-add wins. Advantage XM.

Interesting question no one is asking

How would a merger affect CSR and Sirus Canada? In turn, would they have to merge and would the CRTC allow them to?

Xm owner and long time supporter of an XM-SIRIUS merger.
However I was very disappointed about the FCC coming out and saying it would create a monoply or something like that. What are teh chances of this merger happening an FCC changing their rules for XM?

Doesn't all SIRIUS and XM have to do is explain to the FCC there is a larger Music market out there that satellite radio is competeing against? (such as mp3 players, FM, AM, HD, etc..)

I've noticed something about all this merger talk...
Sirius fans want a merger and XM fans do not... Whats up with that? I thought Sirius has been doing so well (taking over the market share, cash flow positive, etc..) Maybe things aren't so great over there at Sirius after all....

Posted by: DudeManCentral

Dude,

The reason for that is that XM subscribers are wine sipping esoterics who don't know how to make a dollar since they have inherited most of what they have.

Best,

Pockpie

what will the stock price be? will this site get boring because of no xm vs. sirius posts?

Pockpie, Sirius subscribers must then be uninformed asses, full of themselves and easily talked into believing an inferior product is good because a has-been joined their company. Or maybe that's just who you are.

pockpie wrote:
"The reason for that is that XM subscribers are wine sipping esoterics who don't know how to make a dollar since they have inherited most of what they have."

Not quite. They had a lot going for them in the beginning (great tech, great control of costs, low SAC/CPGA etc), they just let it all slip away by not advertising what they had and blindly followed Sirius in the content price wars and "subs at any cost" wars. Had both companies showed fiscal responsibity during the content wars and in acquiring new subs, we wouldn't be sitting here pondering whether a merger would save their asses.

DudeManCentral wrote:
"Sirius fans want a merger and XM fans do not... Whats up with that? I thought Sirius has been doing so well (taking over the market share, cash flow positive, etc..) Maybe things aren't so great over there at Sirius after all...."

The reason for this is twofold: 1) Mel wants the merger now before his market-cap advantage falls to pieces, and 2) They need to get the merger done before the Democrats take over. Democrats typically frown upon media mergers.

Andy wrote:
"1. XM's needing to merge or not has nothing to do with Sirius' success in the (constantly shrinking) retail market. XM simply needs to bring in more money than it spends... if most of that comes from OEM deals, so be it. That cash is just as legitimate as cash from retail sales. Consider XM's health independently of Sirius': it's growing quickly and controlling costs. Whether or not it has more net subs than Sirius in five years is an absolutely irrelevant beauty contest.

2. Perhaps because XM realizes that sub totals are relatively superficial, it hasn't been fighting as hard for the retail market as Sirius has. The marketing just isn't there... and that's probably the bulk of the reason why Sirius is hot right now, since objectively there's little to no difference in content quality. XM must have done a cost/benefit analysis and decided that spending the money on brand awareness just doesn't pan out now that most people who are motivated to go out and buy a satellite radio already have done so, and most everyone else is better served through the OEM channel.

3. Sirius hasn't "won" anything, since it isn't the market share leader, it isn't healthier financially, and it doesn't have anything on the horizon that is going to change the equation. Face facts: both companies will probably stabilize around 10-15 million subscribers. In the end it's a matter of who can maintain that count while spending less than they bring in. XM seems to be a lot more cogniscent of cost control while Sirius is still chasing quarterly net-sub-add wins. Advantage XM."

This is a great post overall.

Here's my take. Let's rewind the clock to 2002-2003, back when XM and Sirius were the fastest growing consumer electronic subscription services. XM in particular was growing at a phenominal rate, why? Because they had a great philosopy, commercial-free music (and deep playlists) and other content that you just couldn't get on FM. Now while Sirius was further behind, they were STILL growing at a great rate, and being #2 really didn't matter (look at Direct TV vs Dish for proof....Dish became profitable before DirectTV with FEWER subs).

All they had to do was continue on their path, and by 2004 they would BOTH be making money (this BEFORE the iPod and other stuff really took off like crazy). But nooooo, Clayton (ex-CEO of Sirius) panicked at being #2 and decided to start the old "content at any price" wars (which XM blindly followed)....content that was CLEARLY secondary to music and talk that wasn't available on FM (the NFL was before Stern). Then it escalated to "subs at any price", with advertising, MIR's, ton's of celebrity channels/signups that had virtually nothing to do with the core business. The subs were coming in already...in droves.

All Sirius had to do was ride XM's coattails to profitability, THEN they could spend the money on secondary content (sports, Stern etc), they didn't NEED that content back then, at all. They simply should have waited longer to see if/when other competing technologies would threaten their turf. I believe that if XM/Sirius had done this, and the business had 20+ million subs between them, then things like the iPod wouldn't be as big as they are today.

Now it's too late. They spent too much time fighting each other, and may both end up losing, merger or no merger.

Andy and satellite radio fan are a little off. cost/benefit analysis would be a good thing to do, but the last thing you want to do is ignore your brand. Brand marketing is to important to let go of. If Sirius continues to dominate the retail market, with more than 200MM cars out there, they will overtake XM in very little time. OEM is a great place to be--to start a company--but you need to concentrate your efforts where the consumer chooses what they want. Having the OEM in your car does not mean they will stay there. There is only about a 50% take rate from that anyway. These people either leave and do nothing or go buy a Sirius unit. This is not what XM wants to happen. OEM drives itself!!! I say it again, OEM drives itself! You don't need to market, advertise, or spend huge amounts of money to let your customers know they can get a XM unit in their new car. Where you should spend is in telling them they can get XM for a car that doesn't already have it.

And the Sports packages, the talk shows, the celebrity hosts, those are the things that have been bringing people to satellite radio. Sirius was the first to do commercial free music, XM followed them. This wouldn't have survived if music was the only thing. Just ask around. How many people prefer the other stuff offered by either company. Shit, take a look at this site...I have never seen a post where people got angry over who had better metal or rap music. BUT you always see a post about Stern vs. O&A. That is because these people create the name for the satellite companies. Something terrestrial radio could not do anymore!

So what will happen to SIRI stock if the merge happens? Any specs there?