i agree 100% with everything you said.

THANKS RYAN!

Wow... I actually think that's a first! :)

i agree too--Nothing changes at all for a long time--If approved early next year, then you will see changes on the business side but nothing for a real long time on the consumer side then would normally happen--New products, etc. will continue and we could see the 2 companies about even in subs by the time this gets going--if it does--Im still thinking it doesnt get done but hope it does--I do think XMs numbers come out pretty bad the next few quarters which only helps the merger issue

I agree with 53.456 %.

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They sure blew the annoucement. Could have got a real pop if it wasn't on fricking President's day.

How in the world can you keep something tight for months and then blow the release..... way too much time to start the negative talk.

Thanks Mel and Gary.... I'm down 100K.

Ryan, another great post and I see you touched on the #1 thing that *MAY* hurt the industry for the time being. And that is consumers now waiting to purchase a receiver.

The average consumer that doesn't read message boards like this will undoubtedly avoid their purchase after hearing about the pending merger. This will now cripple retail, and hurt Sirius especially, should the merger not get approval.

So now us SDARS fans are faced with possibly more troubling news ahead should the merger fail. Customers won't waste their time purchasing receivers from two failing companies, and any chance of them making money could be in even more jeopardy.

One thing that hasn't been considered are redundant systems that would allow XM and Sirius network-specific radios to receive all programming until new radios are available. On the surface, this doesn't seem possible; however, when you consider that music channels represent the greatest use of bandwidth, it's feasible. This would simply require XM and Sirius to merge their music programming - keeping the best channels from each service and genre - without increasing the number of total channels available on each system today. Obviously, all programming would have to be uploaded for distribution over both networks. But, when you consider content overlap between the services today (CNN, ESPN, Traffic/Weather, etc.) and the seasonal sports programming which won't simultaneously (MLB and NFL) compete for bits - existing radios might work just fine!

Ryan - i appreciate your optimism that there won't be any commercials on xm/sirius music channels, but keep in mind that many of the "free" alternatives to satrad you mention are ad-supported and have much larger listener bases. turns out a lot of people are willing to settle for ads if it lowers their cost for accessing content (e.g. cable tv, which is subscription and ad supported).

i wouldn't be too quick to count out some ads on satrad so they can increase their revenues without raising subscriber fees. even at 10 min. of ads every hour, there would be fewer ads on satrad than on terrestrial, and you'd still have the great satrad selection. sad for all us satrad subs who've long known ad-free radio, but for future satrad subs, the 100+ channels of satrad will still seem blissful.

and i've got to think the only thing keeping ads off music channels now is the sirius v. xm competition. if the merger goes through, don't be surprised if we see more ads.

think how many new subscribers they could get at $5.95/month with some ad support. i'm sure they've given this some thought.

Sorry that I can not join the merger love fest but my rose tinted glasses are broken.

Plowboy1: Not for nothing, but the timing of the announcement - to me - is the most curious aspect of this whole deal. Of the whole thing, this is the one thing that makes me raise an eyebrow.

Rustycolumbia: But commercial-free music (and exclusive content) are the key differentiators to terrestrial radio. If you subscribe, and are inundated with commercials... guess what? You unsubscribe. It's extremely easy to "just listen to my iPod" as an alternative. That fact alone will keep satellite radio in check.

Sorry guys, this is the beginning of the end. This was never about Howard vs O&A, the main draw for most subs is the music. Where are the synergies here? I had both services and while you will find channels of similar musical genres, the music is miles apart. Sirius is FM radio w/o commercials which some people love. XM is deeper tracks for music lovers. I'm sure most of you listen to only 5 - 10 channels on average. If you were to lose half of the channels you like would you stick around for the new merged company? If I lose Liquid Metal to the faggoty Catholic Channel it's over. And it certainly doesn't sound like I'm going to save any money. It sounds like I'm going to be paying more. I feel really bad for the gifts I gave at Xmas. It's already tough giving a gift that will cost the recipient a monthly fee. Now try explaining why it's going to go up. Well, it was great while it lasted but like cable TV, it's going to be bland.

Well put Ryan, I like your glass-half-full approach to this whole thing.

This is the kind of post I can expect from you Ryan. We really appreciate the news and view you bring us on a daily basis. You helped answer a lot of immediate questions. Thanks dude.

PFreak: Yeah but, don't you think that you're overreacting just a little bit right now? The scenario you're talking about is YEARS away... if ever.

Ryan - i agree that commercial-free music is a key differentiator to many of us who currently subscribe. But here's the rub: how important is it to potential future subscribers that the music channels be 100% commercial free? they satrad company(ies)(?) are going to at least market research this.

What if instead it's "mostly commercial free"? while some of us current subs may cancel if they added but 1 minute of commercials every hour, some of us may stick around until the 5 minute point, some to 10. What's your threshhold - and where will you go? perhaps to your ipod, but your ipod won't have have Stern, NFL, MLB and because Ma Satrad has the monopoly over that exclusive content.

all current subs have declared that we like satrad enough to pay $12.95, but the next 14 million subs may be those who will only pay $5.95/month and are willing to put up with some ads.

another thing to keep in mind is that the larger the sub base grows, it becomes a juicier target for advertisers and the pressure on executives to advertise increases. it's purely a numbers game and if the numbers from selling ads are bigger than the number of dollars lost from subscribers who bail, then you're going to see ads at some point.

we've seen this before with cable tv, which started off ad-free, but as the sub base increased, it was able to leverage exclusive content to generate both sub and ad revenue.

i hope you're right that commercial-free radio can withstand a merger, but the history and economics of the situation bum me out.

Uh oh Ryan i might have to disagree with you now. And you had me at "hello". I don't think that worries from current subscribers are unwarranted. There's a lot that could happen and I think ultimately, no matter which way you spin it, choice is good. I believe both can exist and succeed.

I purchased a lifetime SIRIUS subscription with a new Stilleto last year because I hate paying monthly fees. I estimated breakeven after 3-4 years, but now question what my subscription will include.

Still have not purchased either stock because they appear highly speculative.

Ryan,

I'm not going to cancel just yet but I don't see a bright future after this. I would imagine we'll enjoy our sat radio for the next year or 2 then the changes will drive many of us out of the market. I hope I'm wrong. My iPod may not have NFL, MLB, NHL, NASCAR, etc but my TV and free radio certainly do. In the end it comes down to music and once they start changing that they will be changing what made me and probably everyone on this board an early adopter in the first place.

rustycolumbia: I honestly can't disagree with you. You're absolutely correct, and it's not something I'm ignoring.

And I'm NOT saying that these concerns are unwarranted.

But at this point in time, I'm willing to take things at face value. I'm not about to go flushing my receiver down the toilet over what "might" come. Like I said, I will go absolutely apeshit if this appears to not benefit the consumer.

We don't even know if this deal will go through (and it doesn't look like Wall Street thinks it will either), so freaking about what may or may not happen - YEARS from now - is a little too knee jerk.

Ryan - agreed. everything is far too speculative at the moment. in all the optimism from sirius and xm that this merger is going to happen, there's a really good chance this deal won't fly. BOTH the fcc and dept. of justice have to like the deal for it to happen.

Ryan:
Good thoughts man. I definitely agree with you. and whose to say what technology could come into play in the next year to year and a half? I do think having access to both services on one radio would be awesome and I'd gladly buy one, but for now I'm happy with my XM Myfi. I do think, however, that some of the other people who post on this site are so incredibly wrapped up in the O&A vs Stern debates that it completely clouds the other issues. It's nice to finally see a post that is not only well thought out, but at the time of this writing does not contain any O&A vs Stern bullshit. I think we've seen quite enough of that, IMHO.

Thanks.

Whats good is we can say goodbye to Panero, btw thanks for taking xm down to this kmart blue light special value.

What even better is those two no talents o&a are finished on sat radio.

This merger news sucks, plenty of customers upgraded to Sirius to get away from the crap programming on xm, the new merged company will be better off just dropping xm's whole channel line up moving forward on Sirius's programming.

bye bye hugh... bye bye o&a...

line the pockets of the justice department and the fcc and anything can happen.

While I hate comcast and pretty much every cable company that has no competion I can see the benefit of the merged sat company because like what has been said many times since speculation began a while ago. MP3 players and other mediums are also competing in the same market place. Cable companies have gotten away with no competition and it has only hurt the consumer. A merged sat radio company has shown slightly how they are going to be for the consumer.

Great article. If they jack up the prices or make my inno obsolete I'll be pulling my subscription. At least I will have one more season of listening to my baseball games.

Jesus H Christ, here we go again. We know youStern fans don't like O&A. We get it. You aren't bringing anything constructive to the discussion. Every single goddamn post on this site somehow has to turn into an O&A/Stern debate, and if you notice, the Stern fans are always first to bash them. Whether you hate them or not doesn't matter here, we're discussing the murger and its effects on the consumer. If you must spout hatred for O&A why not just take it to SFN and keep it there? Sorry Ryan, i just had to get that off my chest. As far as the murger goes, I hope XM can keep some of the decades and rock channels, and Sirius should keep their dance channels. I'd like to see a good combination of offerings from both services. As long as this new company, whatever it'll be called doesn't get lazy and give us low quality channels with everything you can already get on commercial radio, i think it'll be fine. We won't know for another 10 months if that, so let the speculation continue.

How many shares Mel .... and why is the most important aspect of the merger not of interest to the satrad community? Why has/did Wall Street kiss-asses given
Mel and Gary a pass on such a key metric yesterday?

Ryan: As I've shared with you many times on e-mail, I'd/we'd be lost without Orbitcast and thank you for your diligent efforts.

The argument that the Sat Rad situation is different from Cable TV's situation is way off base. Cable must compete with "free" TV. Even with the competition of the new free OTA DTV varied offerings, cable companies are still raising rates.

My guess is that this new company will have a basic sat rad package that will have commercials on the music channels, and then offer a premium no commercial music channel package for those willing to pay extra for it. The basic package will probably cost about $20 a month, and commercial free music will tack on about $5 to $10 to your bill.

This merger is bad for the consumer.

"and if you notice, the Stern fans are always first to bash them"

not true both sides are a bunch of pricks that start fights ;)

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As for the combined services, i would offer to pay a few bucks more a month, i think we are getting a service very cheap...and a combined service would be even cheaper. of course who needs 20 rock stations. i think any price increase would be offset for the first few years in combined cost savings.

the big monster is that neither service can, from what i understand, use eachother's spectrum to offer more channels so some "conversion" to a new reciever will be needed.

Now will they do it for free?

Here is how they will do it.

You keep your current service = current price you get X channels that are 80-90% of what you had. within 2 years they decide to phase out the support for this hardware. (you may or may not get the key channels like stern/MLB without changing)

You decide to upgrade your hardware yourself = you get 40% more channels for the same price for a few years before they raise the prices.

You want all the channels you pay $5 bucks more a month and you get leased hardware. They will offer this to help calm the customer down from having to get new hardware and pay goobs of money up front. leasing will only last a few years at most.

or you quit, see ya.

YAWN.....

Wow!! This brought back some memories...I just got my merger vote in the mail today with an x FOR merger. I will check back after the FCC and DOJ give their answers. I just jumped from 02-21-07 to 10-20-07