XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. surpassed 9.6 million subscribers in the second quarter of 2008, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of record OEM gross additions.
XM added 322,000 new net subscribers in the second quarter of 2008 for a total of 9,653,000 subscribers, that's a 17% increase in subscribers since the end of the second quarter of 2007.
Total gross additions for the quarter came in at 1,081,000 - that includes a record 857,000 gross additions from the automotive (OEM) sector - the fifth consecutive quarter of record OEM gross additions. Retail gross additions were 224,000 for the quarter.
Churn also improved in Q208 to 1.67 percent. Compare that to both second quarter 2007 churn of 1.84 percent and to first quarter 2008 churn of 1.77 percent.
XM also said that subscription revenue for second quarter 2008 is expected to be in the range of $283 - $288 million, and that adjusted operating loss is expected to be in the range of $32 - $38 million (excluding the impact of any FCC settlement). Conversion rate for promotional subscribers is expected to be in the range of 52.7 percent to 53.4 percent.
Is this good or bad for the merger? Will hearing this news give the FCC more leverage for stronger concessions?
Or will this news be good for shareholders?
XM may have wanted to get this out prior to the merger approval. I knew OEM penetration ramp would offset lower overall car sales despite what the manipulators were saying. As far as any effect on the merger. There is none.
You can't spell merger with out ME.
The FCC voting vixen, commissioner Tate
The slowdown in OEM sales will not be seen for a couple more quarters as the promotional subscriptions come due for renewal, but I agree that this is good news for the stock. We will have to for a more detailed listing of numbers before a final opinion can be made, but so far looks so good.
wow,that means 9.6million new howard listeners post merger,according to howie math
in this econiomic enviroment, 322,000 is quite impressive... and disheartening when the I phone sells a million units in how long?
It's hard to compare. You got a lot of spoiled kids who want to have the new fad who will pony up (or have their parents) for the iPhone. But how many of these kids own a car? Or have anywhere to really drive to for that matter?
Satellite radio's target demographic is more narrowly defined than the iPhone.
Yeah...but Sirius can be PLAYED on EVERY one of those million iphones.
in this econiomic enviroment, 322,000 is quite impressive... and disheartening when the I phone sells a million units in how long?
Net subs are recurring monthly revenue, different than just a one time sale of an I-phone. The churn and conversion rates are improving. Looks like 1.4 million net sub increase for year is in reach on a standalone basis - same as last year with a higher Net sub# to churn off, so this is impressive to me.
Good number.... very good.... I'll be surprised to see SIRI beat it, confirming my hypothesis.
What I really want to know however, is how did a woman get into the FCC and what outfit is she wearing today? ...Decision makers of America. Take note of this. Want a token, hire a girl. Want results, hire a man.
"Yeah...but Sirius can be PLAYED on EVERY one of those million iphones."
...and so can XM... dumbass.
Wow - Let's do the math: In order to get each new subscriber, XM had to sell 3.4 receivers. Each of the receivers sold is subsidized. So each new "net" subscriber is responsible for paying off the subsidy of the 2.4 recievers that aren't going to become a new "net" sub.
What a great business model. Not picking on XM here; Sirius has the same problem, although we really can't be sure of the math there because they don't break out parking lot subs.
Great product but a lousy business model.
"Yeah...but Sirius can be PLAYED on EVERY one of those million iphones."
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Funny thing is that XM is an Apple app thats available for the I phone... while there are 2nd party apps for both XM and Sirius... so if your gonna attempt to throw mud... find the good mud first. cause right now .. you got nothin.
In Q2, 2007 XM did 338 net... so this is at least solid despite bad economics. I would however like them to talk more about NET losses and NET adds and a little less hype about "Adjusted" earning and Gross adds... doing the latter makes me think Panero is still there talking shit before he sells his shares.
I still didn't get an answer... does anyone know what outfit Tate has on today?
Wow - Let's do the math: In order to get each new subscriber, XM had to sell 3.4 receivers. Each of the receivers sold is subsidized. So each new "net" subscriber is responsible for paying off the subsidy of the 2.4 recievers that aren't going to become a new "net" sub.
What a great business model. Not picking on XM here; Sirius has the same problem, although we really can't be sure of the math there because they don't break out parking lot subs.
Great product but a lousy business model.
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More and more subs in the future that upfront subsidies paid for already.
Perhaps the most important thing in this announcement is the fact that churn has gone DOWN.
I'm curious to see this trend in Sirius as well.
I have serious doubts that the numbers each of these companies puts out are accurate.
Lot's of hype, but not much substance. Just look at the rates XM is paying to refinance its debt. It doesn't appear to me that the Street has much confidence and XM is forced to go to the loansharks for refinancing. 1% to almost 11% does not sound like prudent financial management. Maybe I'm wrong.
XM will take any % rate on refinancing as long as they buy a few years. This will take the pressure off the stock.
As of Sirius trading at about 2.39, XM is an $ 11 stock - still 2 bucks on the arbitrage gap. I'd be a buyer here.
Churn is down because they are giving people who cancel 3 months.
I called to cancel 1 radio (Inno) as I'm liking Sirius much more and just got the iPhone. Immediately they offered 3 free months without me even asking even though I stated the reason was because I wasn't using it much (which is true - the only thing I really listen to now I can get on the iPhone).
If they are handing these things out like candy it's no wonder churn is so low.
ORBICAST -- CORRECTION:
XM SURPASSES 9.7MM SUBCRIBERS NOT 9.6MM (that was last month)
BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS AND GROWTH TRAJECTORY, XM WILL HIT 10.0MM SUBS BY FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AC: "Churn is down because they are giving people who cancel 3 months."
Both companies do this, and I see your point. But the bigger point is this would come back to haunt both companies the next quarter with an increase in churn. This isn't happening.
The churn has consistently gone down for 3+ quarters. XM/SIRI aren't giving away a year free subscription with a threat of cancellation. 3 months maybe, but not 3+ quarter's worth.
Now, my theory could be shot to hell if SIRI has a substantial rise in churn, but I'm doubtful. We'll see if/when they make their quarterly announcement.
XM will take any % rate on refinancing as long as they buy a few years. This will take the pressure off the stock.
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XM's refinancing is not and will not take effect unless the merger is allowed... all of this refinancing is to clear the way if the merger is aproved. ... no merger... no refinancing... Simple.
Time for Nate to grow a set and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin the "merge" MONOPOLY scheme is OFF. XM can certainly thrive with 9.6, 9.7, 10 million subscribers IF Nate wips XM's management into shape for the first time ever. Why kill XM for Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin? Nate keep XM the satellite radio for the people and XM wins, or go with Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin the "merge" MONOPOLY scheme and XM (and the rest of the satradio industry) is DONE, OVER.
I think the technical capability to stream SATRAD thru a plethora of devices will reduce the importance of the OEMs over the next few years....
But I would agree that the preliminary numbers are much better than what I expected after listening to the analyts....
I think the technical capability to stream SATRAD thru a plethora of devices will reduce the importance of the OEMs over the next few years....
But I would agree that the preliminary numbers are much better than what I expected after listening to the analyts....
Here's what happens when you get right-wings nuts like tate and Martin:
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Federal appeals court tosses fine against CBS for Janet Jackson's 'wardrobe malfunction'
The three-judge panel of the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the Federal Communications Commission "acted arbitrarily and capriciously" in issuing the fine for the fleeting image of nudity.
The 90 million people watching the Super Bowl, many of them children, heard Justin Timberlake sing, "Gonna have you naked by the end of this song," as he reached for Jackson's bustier.
The court found that the FCC deviated from its nearly 30-year practice of fining indecent broadcast programming only when it was so "pervasive as to amount to 'shock treatment' for the audience."
"Like any agency, the FCC may change its policies without judicial second-guessing," the court said. "But it cannot change a well-established course of action without supplying notice of and a reasoned explanation for its policy departure."
The 3rd Circuit judges -- Chief Judge Anthony J. Scirica, Judge Marjorie O. Rendell and Judge Julio M. Fuentes -- also ruled that the FCC deviated from its long-held approach of applying identical standards to words and images when reviewing complaints of indecency.
Time for Nate to grow a set and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin the "merge" MONOPOLY scheme is OFF. XM can certainly thrive with 9.6, 9.7, 10 million subscribers IF Nate wips XM's management into shape for the first time ever. Why kill XM for Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin? Nate keep XM the satellite radio for the people and XM wins, or go with Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin the "merge" MONOPOLY scheme and XM (and the rest of the satradio industry) is DONE, OVER.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | July 21, 2008 10:56 AM
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Please note that the NAB is now so sorry and desperate that they no longer suggest that the merger won't happen, or won't be successful. NOW they are imploring XM management to BREAK the deal.
The patient gasps for oxygen as the room gets dark.
Hee-Hee
Hey PLOWBOY..... I'll bet you sorry you made that "risky investment" now that you made 23K today!
Commissioner
Deborah Taylor Tate
Deborah Taylor Tate was nominated by President George W. Bush on November 9, 2005, and unanimously confirmed by the United States Senate on December 21, 2005. She was sworn in as FCC Commissioner on January 3, 2006, and renominated by President Bush for a full 5-year term on June 20, 2007.
BUT NOT YET CONFIRMED .... LOL
Looks like they were spot on with the 20 million subs by 2010 prediction. Too bad it's under another name.