But wait, we started the year with everyone saying that SIRI would never be in this position ever, its just number playing.?

Was Nascar really a monster we thought it could be?

Nobody has really talked about how many of those soccer moms that got a unit based on what Martha or Oprah told them to do. I don't think NASCAR was totally responsible for bringing Sirius over the top in Q4.

1. NASCAR: I don't think the Nascar effect has hit yet -- I think you will see it this quarter.

2. CHURN: Remember, the Sirius OEM radios came with a year free, while XM's came with 3 months. Now that the year free trials will end, it will be interesting to see the impact on Sirius' churn. If it is low, then the free year was a better move to keep people than XM's three month deal.

The reason XM held its own during the Stern bubble was because of the deals they had with auto manuf'rs.

I think Sirius has been beating XM in radio sales for some time now.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that once the auto companies see that customers are preferring Sirius then that is what they will eventually want to install in cars also (or at least give a choice).

The merger is really about letting XM save face. Otherwise Sirius will just swallow them up anyway.

Thanks, have a nice day.

I see holes.. holes holes...

Chrysler penitration was 30% in Q4 05 and in Q4 06 it was supposedly 40%. We all know how the long term OEM sub Skews the numbers right?

Also.. XM last year had 45,000 rental cars
this year it was less than 5000 rental cars.
Why?

Also notice Sirius did not break out OEM/Retail... Why?

Also. XM revenue grew by 375 million
Sirius's revenue grew by 395 million

how is that when XM gained 1.9 million subs and Sirius gained 2.9 million? ... I'll give you a hint.... they don't count apples for apples. We can no longer compare gross numbers either.

While I'm an XM subscriber, I've always hoped that Sirius would close the gap to keep XM on their toes. Competition is good for the end user. Despite either company's claims, the proposed merger is going to hurt the consumer.

"Was NASCAR the monster we thought it could be?"

No.

"I think Sirius has been beating XM in radio sales for some time now."

Monmin.. your right.. sirius has been beating XM in NET. but not in GROSS untill this Q. Now please take note that Sirius did not release an OEM/Retail breakdown. Did more people sign up for XM on the retail side this Q but due to a larger self pay base XM netted less? We do not know.

Ryan, listen to how giddy you are! You can hardly contain yourself, fanboy. ;)

"Did more people sign up for XM on the retail side this Q but due to a larger self pay base XM netted less? We do not know."

Well, that would go against every report of retail sales which shows Sirius dominating retail. Check the Bridge Report or NPD reports which show Sirius dominating retail every quarter of last year, including the fourth quarter. And the excuse that Walmart is not counted by NPD no longer means anything, as Sirius reported today they sold more their as well.

So, to answer your question, NO.

the oem market is basically equal as of 2006. sirius wins in retail. the gap between net and gross is much more bigger then the retail difference between the two. what if people are just more satisfied with sirius? how many xm subs switch to sirius? who knows, its all one fucking company anyway. these arguements have lost steam.

All this XM pumping means nothing. SIRIUS will own it all. It is just a matter of time.

This is not rocket science. Its radio. People don't pay to listen to technology. They pay to listen to content. In media content always wins. Whoever has the better content over time gets more subscribers. Its that simple.

I love this merger because combining content makes this an unbelievably attractive value for the consumer. Who wouldn't a person pay $12.95 a month to listen to Howard, NFL, MLB, Nascar, Oprah and commercial free music all on one sub?

I don't see any tech analysts talking about content. I have no idea why tech analysts are following the sector. It makes absolutely no sense. This is the media sector.

muscle,

you get the prize content content content...media copyrights and spectrum.....

a device is a device...

i think much has been ignored on the content side of things

"how is that when XM gained 1.9 million subs and Sirius gained 2.9 million? ... I'll give you a hint.... they don't count apples for apples. We can no longer compare gross numbers either. "

Funny last year it was about the "dead" cars in the dealers parking lots, now its something else? lets face facts they are selling better right now and all of 2006 was a sirius year.

Thanks for your insight PFreak good to see you are still here, glad to hear this from you since you were right about the stern effect too, and the impact of O&A deal with CBS and now the impact of NASCAR....lol

Pness,
I have never said they were dead cars. Sirius is paid for the sub so they can count them. Simple as that. However we do know that the car is activated and not sold in some cases for 90 days. also add 1 month grace period and you get a car that came off the line on November 1st 2005 just churning out now. This is not a problem only it changes how anyone can look at sub numbers, SAC, CPGA .. well just about everything, you can not compare the two companies numbers in any way.

"well just about everything, you can not compare the two companies numbers in any way."

i did not mean to implicate that "you" said any of this before it just seems like there was not a problem in 2004-2005 comparing the numbers then there started to be excuses in 2006 for every number sirius put together.

if XM would have put more effort into the number instead of making excuses as to why the number was not real maybe we would not see the problem we see today