As always SeekingAlpha has a transcript of today's earnings call. Here's a key quote from the call from Hugh Panero:

"XM and Sirius today are continuing to operate as separate businesses and we will do so until the merger is finished. I want to emphasize that we are running XM as if there is no merger and we will provide our customers with as great service today as we have in the past. No consumer will have an obsolete radio whether they signed up for service a year ago or sign up today or tomorrow."

Read the rest here. 

XM Satellite Radio has issued an SEC filing that contains their current guidance for 2007. So you go:

• We will grow subscribers to between 9.0-9.2 million with higher seasonal growth in the latter part of the year.
• Subscription revenue should be in the billion dollar range.
• Adjusted negative EBITDA and CPGA will not improve on a year over year basis and will be flat to marginally higher due to merger related costs and effects, the need to continue stimulating the retail marketplace in light of the pending merger and the impact of OEM factory installed volume ramp-up before the subscribers come on as paying subs.
• While we will see improved cash flow from operations in 2007, the timing and interrelationship of the factors we just described means full year positive cash flow from operations will likely move into 2008.
• By the time of our next earnings call, we should have a better understanding of merger related costs and expect to come back with refined adjusted EBITDA guidance.

During the Q&A part of the earnings call, it was asked about the long-term guidance and whether the estimate for subscribers in "the high-teens" still stands. The "high-teens" number was confirmed, but no further long-term guidance was offered.

Considering that XM added 1.7M net subscribers in 2006, and expects to add 1.4-1.6M subscribers in 2007, you can understand why they're sticking to the "high-teens" estimate for 2010.

Orbitcast is live blogging XM Satellite Radio's earnings call. Just keep refreshing and this post will be updated in real-time.

• Joe Titlebaum kicks it off.
• Now to Hugh Panero...
• As of you know ("or should know") XM and Sirius announced the merger
• Under the merger they would become the premiere provider of audio entertainment
• It would be a combo with the long-term financial capability to compete
• XM and Sirius continue to operate as SEPARATE business
• XM is being run as if there is NO MERGER
• NO CONSUMER will have an obsolete radio

Now that we have the 4Q06 numbers, we can take a look at gross subscriber additions. The reason why gross subscribers are important is shows the exact market penetration of each company and how well they're attracting new subscribers.

So in Q4 2006, XM added 1,064,887 gross subscribers (when compared to 1,373,876 in Q4 2005). For the full year in 2006, XM added 3,866,481 gross subscribers (compared to 4,130,437 in full-year 2005).

Above is a graph that illustrates the quarterly gross subscriber additions from the beginning of 2005 through the EOY 2006.

It's obvious that XM's momentum has slowed, even when you remove churn (people who have dropped the service) and just look gross subscriber additions, it's clear that XM's subscriber growth rate is softening.

The big hit comes from the retail side of things, where 4Q06 retail subs were 540,474 versus 935,707 in 4Q05, while OEM gross subscribers are actually up for the fourth quarter (524,413 vs 438,169).

XM Satellite Radio has released their Q4 and full-year 2006 results. Here's the highlights:

• XM reported Q4 total revenue of $257.1 million, an increase of 45% YoY
• XM's full-year 2006 total revenue was $933.4 million, an increase of 67% YoY
• Subscription revenue grew to $825.6 million, a 64% increase YoY
• Advertising revenue grew to $35.3 million, a 76% increase YoY
• For Q4, SAC was $70 (compared to $89 in the same period last year)
• For Q4, CPGA was $128 (compared to $141)
• For the full-year 2006, SAC was $64 and CPGA was $108
• XM reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $69.8 million for the fourth quarter (compared to the EBITDA loss of $172.8M back in 4Q05)
• For the full year 2006, XM reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $166.2 million down from the full year 2005 adjusted EBITDA loss of $403.7 million.
• Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2006 was $256.7 million, from $268.3M in the same period last year
  
• Full year net loss was $718.9 million, from $666.7M in 2005.

Tomorrow, February 20th, XM and Sirius will hold a joint conference call and webcast on at 8:30 AM ET to discuss this announcement.

The conference call can be monitored by dialing 800-573-4840 within the U.S. and 617-224-4326 for all other locations, passcode 29490052.

The webcast can be accessed on both Sirius' website or XM's website, as well as on both their satellite radio services by tuning to SIRIUS channel 122 and XM channel 200.

For those who cannot listen in, Orbitcast will be live-blogging the call so you can get your updates right here.

Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck put out a note recently that they think both Sirius and XM believe a proposed merger actually would pass regulatory approval.

But as we've all noticed, after the hype back in January, there appears to be very little buzz about the satellite radio merger as of late. This public slowing of the potential merger has hampered both stock prices (XMSR down about 25%, and SIRI is close to 52 week lows).

Peck further feels that the economics of the merged company is what is slowing down the public progress of the merger. But with the closing window of opportunity, both companies should "avoid quibbling over a few share points, to capture the much larger value of overall potential synergies."

The firm believes that the split of the merged company should go 55% in XM's favor, though of course both sides would probably argue over a higher percentage regardless, but this center point is appropriate "given the estimates in their model."

They think that upon the expectation of a successful deal, the ~$6-7B in synergies would take the value of XM's stock to ~$25, presenting significant upside potential.

[Notable Calls vs Seeking Alpha] 

Analysts seem split over XM's decision to sell and leaseback XM-4 in an effort to add some coin to the bank.

Bank of America analysts Jonathan Jacoby said XM is now funded until the second half of 2008, when they're expected to turn a profit. On the otherhand, Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne was "mixed" on the deal, saying that this could show XM's opinions about future cash flow as well as on price increases.

"We believe this transaction also likely speaks to management's view on raising prices in 2007," Swinburne said. "We believe Sirius will move to raise rates in 2007, but that XM is less inclined to follow suit."

[Forbes] 

There were rumors of a possible sale-leaseback deal, and they appear to be true. XM Satellite Radio has entered into a sale-leaseback deal with Satellite Leasing LLC, bringing a total of $288.5 million in cash to XM.

The deal, which involves the selling of the XM-4 transponder (not the satellite itself) and subsequently leased back from Satellite Leasing, was finalized yesterday (February 13th) after months of negotiation and prep work. It follows some extensive in-orbit testing of XM-4 in January, and some additional insurance that was placed last week to get the deal to go through.

The sale-leaseback deal allows XM to add some quick liquidity on something that previously was not liquid, as well as to reap the tax benefits of owning the XM-4 satellite itself. XM has already paid off $44 million for outstanding mortgages on their property. The lease term is for 9 years, and XM will retain full operational control over XM-4 during the term. 

[View SEC Filing] 

XM Satellite Radio has (finally!) scheduled their earnings call for Monday, February 26th, at 10am ET to announce and discuss their Q4 and full year 2006 financial results.

To listen to the conference call via phone, call: (877) 265-5808 or try the local call-in number: (706) 679-7931

Or tune into the XM earnings call webcast here. (2/26 @ 10am ET)

UPDATE: Yes, just like last time I will be live blogging XM's earnings call for those of you who won't be able to tune in.