With analysts and FCC Commissioners indicating a decision won't come until next quarter, not to mention only a few government-decision days are left until the new year, it looks more and more like we'll be on the edge of our seats into 2008.

Former FCC Chairman, and current hired gun for Sirius (of the Wiley Rein namesake), referenced this during a recent teleconference with Wall Street analysts led by Bear Stearns' Victor Miller.

"DOJ always goes first in this area," Wiley told analysts on Wednesday. "It is looking more and more like a 2008 decision."

Wiley then added, "If I had anything to say, I couldn't say it, but I don't have anything to say."

[Radio & Records via Orbitcast Forums]

The merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. will likely get the DOJ's seal of approval by the end of this year, with the FCC predicted to follow suit in early February, according to RBC Capital analyst David Bank.

In a recent research note, RBC wrote that their sources in D.C. indicated that the DOJ is likely to approve the merger before the end of the year. While reports of an imminent decision were obviously incorrect, RBC still finds that Assistant Attorney General Thomas Barnett - who ultimately rules on the merger - will be leaning towards an approval.

At this point, the FCC's 180-day timeclock has become "immaterial" (obviously) and Bank estimates that the FCC won't make a final decision on the Sirius-XM merger until "early February at best." RBC sources indicate that the FCC is predicted to be 1-2 months away from fleshing out all the conditions to the merger (such as pricing, interoperability, unused bandwidth, indecency, etc.).

The FCC also recently began publishing a list of "Items on Circulation" - a weekly list used to provide better transparency into what the Commission is currently reviewing - and the Sirius-XM merger is not on the list. So a decision by the year-end is unlikely.

Remember that the DOJ looks at competition as far out as two years from now when analyzing the marketplace.

A year ago, Apple and Google were not players in mobile devices, and Microsoft was not behind a disruptive force for in-vehicle entertainment. Bank, citing the iPhone specifically, feels that mobile audio entertainment on cellphones "will likely be ubiquitous" using this perspective.

Thanks Sam!

Nasdaq announced late Friday the annual re-ranking of the Nasdaq-100 Index, and XM Satellite Radio is one of five to get cut from the list.

Aside from XM Satellite Radio Holdings INc. (XMSR), LM Ericsson Telephone Company ("ERIC"), Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. ("PTEN"), Ross Stores Inc. ("ROST") and Sepracor Inc. ("SEPR") were also snubbed from the Nasdaq-100.

The Nasdaq-100 Index is comprised of the 100 largest non-financial stocks on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Replace those in the index are Hologic, Inc. (HOLX), a diagnostic and medical product company; Focus Media Holding Ltd. (FMCN), a digital-media company based in China; Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS), a beverage maker; Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD), a steel maker; and Stericycle, Inc. (SRCL), a medical waste disposer.

The index is re-ranked each year in December. XM joined the Nasdaq-100 back in December of 2004.

[MarketWatch]

Despite yesterday's hoopla over a letter written by Reps. Conyers and Chabot to Attorney General Michael Mukasey, the Sirius-XM merger is still on track an analyst said today.

Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. analyst Blair Levin said that while the DOJ has struggled with the decision and the final outcome is a close call, he believes the department will green light the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.

Investors right now are on a hair trigger, waiting for the slightest indication of where the merger decision will go. After the news broke yesterday, shares of both XMSR and SIRI fell sharply - XM shares dropped nearly 10% Wednesday.

Still, despite the legislators' skepticism, Levin said the deal is still moving forward.

"It's possible the Department of Justice will still try to block the deal and that there's been some sort of leak, but we don't believe the reported letter ... means there is a greater chance of DOJ opposition," Levin said in a client note, noting a decision could come any day.

[AP]

Wondering why the stock took a nosedive earlier today? This might be it. Members of the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee expressed concern about the DOJ's review of the proposed merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.

In a letter dated December 11th to Attorney General Michael Mukasey, Reps. John Conyers and Steve Chabot wrote:

"We were dismayed to learn of recent press reports suggesting that Justice Department staff may be trying to rush through the merger before you have an opportunity to fully participate, and that Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Thomas O. Barnett may intend to grant the merger over the objections of department staff."

The longer this process drags on, the more and more opportunity it gives for those on Capitol Hill to make a stink about it.

[Reuters]
Thanks Mark!
'
UPDATE: Interestingly enough, Conyers and Chabot were the two Congressmen who the NAB apologized about, stating that they misrepresented the members' position on the merger.

We're now on day 181 of the 180-day FCC timeclock, and many folks are undoubtedly scratching their heads (or biting their nails).

But a quick look at some of the other major transactions that the FCC had, or has, on its plate shows that this isn't necessarily out of the ordinary for the Commission:

• Adelphia Communications, Time Warner, Inc., Comcast Corporation - 404 Days
• AT&T Inc. and BellSouth Corporation - 253 Days
Clear Channel Communications, Inc. and Lee/Bain - 350 Days
• Tribune Company and Samuel Zell - 204 Days
• Verizon Communications Inc. and FairPoint Communications - 266 Days
• Liberty Media, DirecTV - 287 Days

So when Watts said that the FCC review of the Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. transaction could take longer, well, he meant it.

Of course, the DOJ still needs to reach a decision as well, and they don't have a timeclock to adhere to - no matter how arbitrary it may be.

At yesterday's UBS Global Media conference, XM Chairman Gary Parsons said that the Department of Justice will have to approve the merger within a week or 10 days for the deal to go through this year. (UPDATE: Gary's reference to ten days had to do with getting the approval in 2007. He was not claiming that the deal was over if they didn't get the approval in the next 10 days. Sorry for the confusion.) That doesn't leave much time left.

Good, because I don't know about you, but I'm getting a little sick of this.

XM Chairman Gary Parsons is speaking today at the UBS Global Media conference (yes, the same one that Frear spoke at yesterday). I'm trying not to get my hopes up about any "special" announcements, but you know we'll all be listening in with the utmost attention regardless.

You'll be able to tune in to the online webcast here.

(Side note, did anyone else notice David Frear "auditioning" for a management position yesterday?)

Whether or not the merger with Sirius goes through, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes still doesn't like XM, and downgraded shares of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. from Neutral to Sell this morning.

"We could be wrong in the near-term, if the DOJ approves the proposed merger," says Wienkes. “That said, our downgrade is valuation based and contemplates possible short-term price swings whether the DOJ approves or rejects."

"Deal or no deal, we think the current valuation incorporates a view too close to optimal, e.g. DOJ and FCC approvals with few conditions and subsequently, near-certain realization of all potential synergies,” added Wienkes.

Bottom line: “With the majority of the upside baked in, we recommend investors sell XMSR.”

And what about Sirius? Pretty much just like XM, only worse, says Winkes: "In our view, SIRI (Sell) shares are subject to the same merger issues as XMSR shares coupled with a less favorable business model and trends."

[Barrons, Silicon Alley Insider]

The merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. may not be approved by the FCC's deadline, according to Cowen & Co analyst Tom Watts.

"In fact, the FCC review could take longer," Watts wrote in a client note. "We point out that deadlines can, and may, slip past the FCC's 180-clock."

Watts also points out that the DOJ doesn't necessarily need to adhere to the FCC's unofficial timeline.

He still feels that the deal will be approved by regulators, but warns that two stocks would tumble if the deal doesn't go through (uhm, yeah, I think we knew that). Watts estimates that XMSR would fall between 20%-30% and SIRI would fall 20%.

[BusinessWeek]

Is today the day that we'll finally get a decision on the merger? Last week The Eck and the 1221 (not to mention the internets) were abuzz with rumors that approval from the Justice Department was imminent. Bob Peck's report, as well as a lack of opposing information, further fueled the excitement.

XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) advanced 1.86, or 13.54%, to 15.60; and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) gained 31 cents, or 8.81%, to 3.83, on Friday trading.

Many believe that the DOJ will issue its announcement before the bell on Monday, mostly based on Bear Stearns' word that the deal will be approved as soon as last Friday or today. Of course, no one knows for sure except for the DOJ itself... but what do you think? Is today the day?